2016 NBA Draft Scouting Report: Marquese Chriss
By Chris Stone
Although the Washington Huskies failed to deliver an NCAA Tournament birth to Seattle this season, the program did produce two one-and-done NBA prospects who may be taken in the first round of June’s NBA Draft.
Marquese Chriss entered the season as the 56th ranked prospect in the class of 2015, according to Rivals, but his unique combination of youth, explosive athleticism, and potential floor spacing drew the attention of NBA scouts as the season progressed.
Chriss joined his teammate, Dejounte Murray, in declaring for the draft just two days after the Huskies’ season ended in the second round of the NIT. The 6-9 forward now enters the workout period as one of the draft’s biggest boom-or-bust prospects.
Here’s a look at what makes Chriss a potential lottery pick in 2016.
Offense
Chriss doesn’t play with the effort needed to keep up with small forwards on defense nor is he an active enough shooter or passer to play that position on offense, so he’s most likely to end up in the power forward spot where he should fit well in modern offensive schemes. There’s plenty of intrigue surrounding Chriss’ offensive game as he projects as a stretch power forward who can attack off the dribble and help space the floor out to the three-point line.
Washington’s up-tempo system, which played at the second quickest pace in the country last season, allowed Chriss to showcase his impressive athleticism and length at the rim. 43.2 percent of Chriss’ field goal attempts were either dunks or layups,
, and he finished an impressive 68.5 percent of them. The 18-year old is still sorting out how to consistently finish layups with both hands, but his bounciness and long arms give him the raw talent to play well above the rim.
Chriss is also capable of beating slower power forwards off the dribble. He doesn’t have a great handle, but his first step is reasonably quick getting to the rim. That skill is important and will allow him to attack rotations and close outs given Chriss’ potential to help space the floor as a three-point shooter. As a freshman, he attempted just 60 three-pointers, but Chriss converted 35 percent of them and his shooting stroke is smooth. Chriss gets his feet set before lifting off by hopping into his shot and releases the ball with nice rotation and arch.
The questions surrounding Chriss relate to what else he’ll be able to contribute offensively. Sure, he was an opportunistic offensive rebounder in college by cleaning up the boards when his man helped onto driving guards, but given his defensive rebounding woes, it’s not clear how much teams should expect out of Chriss in this area at the next level.
Chriss struggled immensely as a passer in college, often stopping the ball in its tracks and not working to find open teammates. He posted an assist rate of just 6.3 percent, which when combined with his high turnover rate (17.6 percent) is not a promising look. Chriss has a one-track mind with the ball in his hands — score — and if he’s not going to be relied upon as a primary scorer in the NBA, it’s unclear how much he can offer his team offensively.
Still, Chriss’ potential to be a scorer and develop into a marginal passer, makes him an intriguing offensive prospect given his ability to play above the rim and spread the floor.
Defense
There are more concerns about Chriss defensively than there are positives. The statistic that sticks out like a sore thumb is Chriss’ poor defensive rebounding percentage. Chriss is 6-9 with 7-0 wingspan and he can jump out of the gym, but his defensive rebound rate as a freshman was a miserable 11.7 percent. For comparison, Chriss’ teammate, Dejounte Murray posted a defensive rebound rate of 13.7 percent as a 6-5 guard. The problem is that Chriss doesn’t actively box out waiting opponents and his lack of motor without points on the line is one of the bigger criticisms that exists for the first round prospect.
Chriss’ lack of engagement on the defensive end also translates to his one-on-one defense where he is rarely seated in a defensive stance. He’s quick enough to stay in front of his man, but his lack of fundamentals and discipline shine in a poor way defensively. Those traits are reflected in Chriss’ inability to stay on the floor. He averaged 6.5 fouls per 40 minutes, which is one of the big reasons he was limited to just 24.9 minutes per game at Washington.
The bet on Chriss here is that his lack of focus and control defensively is a product of his youth. He’s one of the youngest players in the class and there are some promising signs that with improved fundamentals, Chriss could be a plus defender in the NBA. In particular, Chriss was a decent weak side shot blocker as a freshman, averaging 2.6 blocks per 40 minutes and posting a 5.8 percent block rate. He has the length and quickness to be a quality help defender if he’s willing to play with the necessary effort on that end of the floor.
Outlook
Washington’s Marquese Chriss quickly began to turn heads as a freshman largely because of his explosive athleticism, outside shooting, and potential to be a stretch power forward in the NBA. He is projected as a probable lottery pick in June, but there are plenty of red flags surrounding the 18-year old.
If Chriss is willing to invest in developing the necessary defensive fundamentals, he can be a versatile player on that end of the floor given his quickness and length. Chriss is aggressive on the offensive boards where he can boost his stat line, but defensively, he doesn’t show the type of consistent effort required to win basketball games. The upside is certainly there, though.
Offensively, Chriss has an excellent ceiling as a scorer, but he’ll need to become a better ball mover within the offense to help create open looks for himself and his teammates. If Chriss can be a better decision-maker, he’ll have one of the highest offensive upsides at the power forward position in the draft.
Chriss is a potential home run given his offensive upside and defensive potential, but there are enough red flags that suggest he could be a slow grounder to the second baseman to limit his ceiling in the draft order. However, given that the 2016 class lacks a large pool of candidates with similar upside, it wouldn’t be surprising to see Chriss come off the board in the top 10 come June.