Roundtable: Phoenix Suns Draft and Offseason Plans
The Phoenix Suns had a tumultuous season finishing with a record of 23-59. They also fired head coach Jeff Hornacek and promoted Earl Watson, who shed the interim tag after signing a three-year deal back in April.
The franchise has really taken a turn in the wrong direction after narrowly missing the playoffs in 2013/14 with 48 wins out west. They won 39 games last year and again only 23 this season. Changes are likely coming and this offseason should be monumental in shaping both their immediate and long-term future as a mainstay in the NBA. As of now they have 10 players under contract for the 2016/17 season giving them ultimate flexibility in the free agency market and during draft day. They also own three first round picks — two in the lottery! — and one second round (No. 34) pick so the potential to add youth to their roster is apparent.
U&M reached out the Gerald Bourguet (@GeraldBourguet) who is the Phoenix Suns lead writer and reporter for HoopsHabit on the FanSided Network. Gerald is certainly plugged in when it comes to his beloved Phoenix Suns and he will be moderating the pitches our three team members have derived from their feeble brilliant minds.
Speeding up the rebuilding process
By Evan Wheeler (@EvanWheelz)
Phoenix hasn’t made the playoffs in six years and are coming off their second worst season in franchise history. With four of the top 34 picks in this year’s draft, the Suns have plenty of assets to help enable the rebuilding process and get this franchise back to the glory days of the 90’s and 2000’s. It is very clear that Devin Booker is the franchise player of not only the present but also the future in Phoenix. Booker finished with six 30-point games in his rookie year and became the fourth-youngest player to score 1,000 career points.
However, with both Eric Bledsoe and Brandon Knight still on the roster, Booker’s star won’t be able to shine at its brightest. Both Bledsoe and Knight are coming off of season-ending surgeries, creating questions about both players health going forward. The injuries I’m sure have diminished some of the value the Suns could get in return for both players, but moving at least one of them this offseason would be ideal for Phoenix.
If I had to choose between either Bledsoe or Knight to part ways with, I would go with the latter in Knight. Teams like Sacramento, Minnesota and New Orleans all could be heavily interested in adding Knight. Ricky Rubio clearly isn’t the difference maker at the point guard position Minnesota thought he was and Knight could come in and upgrade that spot immediately for the T-Wolves. Knight would start right away for Sacramento at the shooting guard position and with Eric Gordon’s impending free agency and Tyreke Evans’ injury history, Knight could be an immediate starter in New Orleans as well.
The Suns could package Knight and, say, the No. 13 pick to any of those teams, getting either the fifth, sixth or eighth pick in return. For the sake of this article, we’ll say New Orleans pulls the trigger and sends the sixth pick to Phoenix in exchange for Knight and the 13th pick, giving the Suns two of the top six selections in this draft. With the 4th pick, I think it’s a no-brainer for Phoenix, either take Dragan Bender or Jaylen Brown.
If they took Bender, he would be the long-term answer for them at the 4 and possibly even start right away, given both Mirza Teletovic and Jon Leuer both will be unrestricted free agents this summer. His shooting ability and movement skills would make an impact right away in the desert. Brown would also come in and start right away for the Suns, most likely at the 3, giving them a bouncy athlete who also can defend along the perimeter, something they desperately need. Adding either Bender or Brown would give the Suns a dynamic duo with Booker, creating a potential force in the Western Conference for years to come.
Phoenix could then with the sixth pick take Brown, let’s say if they can get Bender at No. 4 and then Brown falls to No. 6, but that’s highly unlikely. I think the two most reasonable options for the Suns would be to either try to package the sixth pick with Tyson Chandler, to entice another team to take on the remaining three years and $39 million left on his current contract. This would free up the starting center spot for Alex Len, who’s coming off a season where he started in 46 games and finished with 19 double-doubles.
If they stayed at No. 6, didn’t land Bender at No. 4 and drafted Brown, then I think the best bet for them is to take either Skal Labissiere or Jakob Poeltl. Labissiere would be a slight reach at No. 6, but his upside is tremendous and his shot-blocking and midrange shooting ability would be a nice complement next to Len. Poeltl could provide some spacing issues playing next to Len, but having two players that are 7-1 and can both score on the block has its advantages. Poeltl also has a developing midrange game and his passing ability could open up the offensive playbook more for head coach Earl Watson. Both Labissiere and Poeltl also have great mobility and should improve Phoenix’s pick and roll defense right away.
Lastly, at picks 28 and 34, Phoenix would have a plethora of options. Brice Johnson would make a lot of sense at 28, again giving the Suns much needed athleticism, as well as rim protection and providing them with a potential long-term answer at the 4. Johnson possesses a good midrange game as well, opening up more space for Bledsoe and Booker to work with. Dejounte Murray could make sense at 34, as Ronnie Price is an unrestricted free agent and Murray could come in to fill that void at the backup point guard position. He’d also give Phoenix leverage with Bledsoe in the future and make him more expendable, if they so choose to move him later on.
This would leave the Suns with a roster looking like this (assuming Bender’s gone at 4):
PG: Bledsoe, Murray
SG: Booker, Goodwin, Jenkins
SF: Brown, Tucker, Budinger, Warren
PF: Labissiere or Poeltl, Johnson, Williams
C: Len, Chandler
Obviously the Suns will look to be major players in free agency and should go heavily after Al Horford, Nicolas Batum and Harrison Barnes this summer. If you just look at the roster constructed after these draft picks though, the Suns would be in a much better situation not only long-term, but short-term as well. They would possess a young core of Booker, Brown, Len, Labissiere or Poeltl, Murray, Johnson, Goodwin and Warren. The results might not come immediately, but you can’t tell me this group wouldn’t get you excited as a Phoenix Suns fan.
Expert Reaction
By Gerald Bourguet (@GeraldBourguet)
As will be the case with each of these proposals, there’s a lot to digest here — mostly because there are so many different options the Suns could pursue without a singular, clear-cut path back to prominence.
The first point about the backcourt logjam is a pertinent issue for general manager Ryan McDonough, especially since he’s already been through something similar with that talented Goran Dragic-Eric Bledsoe-Isaiah Thomas trio that wound up growing disgruntled by a lack of touches. Isn’t this Bledsoe-Brandon Knight-Devin Booker trio heading for Suns Backcourt Doomsday, Part 2 in the exact same way?
Booker is still young and more flawed than depressed Suns fans are willing to admit, but Knight was a major disappointment last year, both with his on-court performance and his inability to stay healthy. Bledsoe is a far better, more well-rounded player despite yet another knee injury, and with Booker looking the part of franchise savior at the tender age of 19, Knight feels like the obvious odd man out.
The only problem is Knight is entirely opposed to the idea of embracing a sixth man role, which he’d actually be well suited for. Between the injuries, the poor defense, the head-scratching shot selection and the insistence on being a starting point guard in this league, his trade value has never been lower.
That makes it hard to project what teams might be interested in trading for him, especially when packaged with a No. 13 pick in a draft that’s essentially a crapshoot after the first few prospects.
Minnesota reportedly shopped Rubio at the trade deadline this year, but turning the reins over from Rubio to Knight would be a mistake. However, I agree with Evan that Sacramento and New Orleans would make some sense as potential trade destinations for Knight given how much younger he is compared to Rondo (an unrestricted free agent this summer) and the injury-prone Jrue Holiday.
Dragan Bender would be the ideal outcome for the Suns at No. 4, but the Boston Celtics are a real threat to scooping him up at No. 3, even if their frontcourt is already pretty full. Would Danny Ainge be open to a trade of Phoenix’s picks at No. 4 and No. 13 for Boston’s No. 3 pick and their No. 16 pick so the Suns could ensure they get Bender at No. 3? It might be worth exploring for McDonough, especially in a weaker draft where Phoenix owns four picks in the top 34.
I like Jaylen Brown as a possible consolation prize if Bender is off the board, but I don’t see him starting over P.J. Tucker or T.J. Warren. People forget Warren vastly improved his three-point shooting before that season-ending injury. If he can do the same with his defense, he could very well be Phoenix’s third most important young prospect behind Booker and Alex Len. I don’t see Brown getting the starting nod over the garbage man Tucker or a promising scorer like Warren.
I also don’t see the Suns being major players in free agency (to no one’s surprise), but they should do their due diligence — even if it might mean taking a long-term, expensive gamble on a young player like Harrison Barnes.
However, assuming the Suns are only able to find minor help in free agency by re-signing Mirza Teletovic and/or Ronnie Price, and bringing in a guy like Kent Bazemore or Allen Crabbe, this whole rebuild should be centered around youth anyway. For now, the Suns should be trying to move up to grab Bender, packaging picks for better assets (preferably in 2017) and biding their time until Knight and Tyson Chandler can build their trade value back up.
Rebuild harder, better, faster and stronger
By Brendon Kleen (@BrendonKleen14)
A bit of advice to start: there is no such thing as a soft rebuild, at least if your goal is title contention. Whether you call it a Process or not, there’s no way you’re avoiding player development on the path to a championship. That can equate to collecting assets, trading for an unproven young player, tanking and drafting a franchise-changer or it can even mean keeping a young core together until they coalesce into an impactful summative group. The Suns bucked this entire line of thinking in acquiring Brandon Knight last year.
They got rid of the coveted-but-not-yet-conveyed Los Angeles Lakers first rounder and two former first-round selections to get him, and now find themselves paying $13 million to a guy who showed startling bad habits on offense throughout the season last year. There’s no way they’re getting equal value back, considering how few developing teams will be interested in acquiring a guy like him at this point. The first step, then: renounce all the free agents and guarantee P.J. Tucker’s final year. Teletovic and Leuer were nice, but aren’t long-term building blocks. Ronnie Price and Chase Budinger are the opposite of nice. Tucker is perfectly nice on a $5 million deal.
That being said, the Suns have three first round picks. With Teletovic and Leuer out of the way, they have to pull the trigger on Dragan Bender at No. 4 if he’s there. If not, they’re a team I feel would be okay with for Jaylen Brown considering the spacing their backcourt should offer for 35 minutes a game. But let’s assume they can get Bender, considering Boston already has Kelly Olynyk and needs a center more than a playmaking 4.
I like the idea of packaging the 13th and 28th picks to move up and nab a higher second lottery pick. This type of deal is less prevalent in the NBA than say, the NFL, but it happens a couple times in each draft. It’s hard to guess this far from the draft what team might be interested but when in doubt, I still go with the #Kangz. The prospects available around No. 8 figure to largely be frontcourt guys, and with Boogie, Koufos, and WCS in tow, Sacramento has little need there.
The Suns would have their pick of nearly any third-tier lottery guy at No. 8, and I would have no problem with Deyonta Davis going this early, as raw as he is. His ability to fill minutes at the 4 and the 5 will be valuable if Alex Len continues to struggle in his development and basically fills the power forward minutes opened up by the departures of Leuer, Teletovic and Markieff Morris. With so many defensively-questionable guards in front of him in Phoenix, his rim protection will be valuable from the start.
In the second round, they’ll have the ability to nab whoever falls out of the first round or reach on a guy they like, considering their placement at 34. I’d love for them to fall in love with upside here and go with someone like Zhou Qi, Dejounte Murray or Juan Hernangomez. Having a guy stay overseas wouldn’t be the worst.
In free agency, I’m fine with a quiet summer. If they can earn a meeting with Kevin Durant, they have to take it, as has been true the last two years. Otherwise, I think they should look to plug holes on the weekend, regardless of their internal expectations for T.J. Warren. If they could land someone like Kent Bazemore, Evan Fournier or Allen Crabbe, great. If not, even a short deal for, say, Solomon Hill would be fine at a reasonable rate. The Suns will have money to spend, but don’t need to spend it.
Finally, a backup point guard is a necessity for a team who gave Jordan McCrae, Sonny Weems and Archie Goodwin starter’s minutes at that position this year. A veteran placeholder like Raymond Felton or Randy Foye will do with three ball-handlers already due to earn big minutes this year.
That all being said, the rotation figures to look something like this:
PG: Bledsoe, Knight, Felton, Goodwin
SG: Knight, Booker, Felton, Goodwin
SF: Tucker, Warren, Solomon Hill
PF: Dragan Bender, Deyonta Davis, Solomon Hill
C: Tyson Chandler, Alex Len
I’ll finish by saying that the team really ought to cut bait on Knight the minute he plays himself into a higher trade value. The 2015 version of Brandon Knight has no place on a building team, especially in front of Devin Booker on the depth chart. Even getting a couple second rounders and a young piece would be enough for me to get rid of him.
Expert Reaction
By Gerald Bourguet ( @GeraldBourguet)
Gotta love when you wonder how a team in the lottery would possibly accept a package of the No. 13 and No. 28 picks to allow another team to move up to their spot in the draft…and then remember that the Sacramento Kings are still a thing.
I’m not sure even the Kangz would accept a package like this for the No. 8 selection, but this is the exact kind of proposal that McDonough should be trying to sniff out. With Bogdan Bogdanovic possibly coming stateside for the 2016-17 season and the Suns owning four picks in the top-34 — in a weaker draft that’s basically a crapshoot outside the top prospects, no less — Phoenix should be trying to package picks for more desirable future assets or use them on draft-and-stash prospects, as Brendon mentioned already.
Bender is the ultimate prize, though I still think Boston is a legitimate threat to snag him before Phoenix is on the clock. If Bender does wind up in a Suns uniform next season though, it wouldn’t surprise me to see McDonough overpay and bring Teletovic back next season. He was a useful, entertaining reserve, he wants to play here under head coach Earl Watson and why not? It’s not like the Suns will be major players in free agency anyway.
I like the idea of reaching out to guys like Kent Bazemore or Allen Crabbe to plug up some holes, since a prize like Harrison Barnes would come at a higher cost. Al Horford and Nicolas Batum would be great additions, but they’re unlikely to join a Suns team that won 23 games last season.
For backup point guards, the Suns could look at guys like Price, Raymond Felton, Randy Foye, or my preferred option who would be a little more expensive: Jeremy Lin. As far as Knight is concerned, while I agree the Suns need to move him sooner rather than later to avoid another Dragic-Bledsoe-Thomas blowup, his value is so low right now I’m not sure how McDonough moves him over the summer. Stay tuned on that one.
The Auspicious & Thus (Potentially) Anti-Sarver Plan
By Cole Zwicker ( @colezwicker)
Phoenix is in a precarious situation in terms of roster construction age alignment. Devin Booker looks like the clear “franchise pillar” at 19 after a promising rookie season. Eric Bledsoe (26) and Brandon Knight (24), whose careers have suffered setbacks due to injury, are in or entering their primes, and playing those two with the aforementioned Booker together is untenable against elite small forwards. Phoenix just gave Tyson Chandler (33) $52 million in effort to lure LaMarcus Aldridge last offseason, which stunted the development of young big man Alex Len.
Overall, there is no clear-cut team trajectory, and it’s difficult to even evaluate the current roster due to injuries last year. The Suns need to see what they have roster-wise, and equally as important need to let their potential trade chips (Bledsoe, Knight, Chandler) recoup value and not sell low on them. Thus, patience will be preached.
2016 Draft
No. 4 Pick (Ideal) Option 1 — Draft Dragan Bender:
This is a rare slam-dunk instance where best player available aligns with the greatest team positional need. Bender can space the floor for Phoenix’s high usage guards at the 4/5 and present a viable pick-and-pop shooting threat. Bender also provides versatility and high-level defensive potential with his quick feet guarding the perimeter, a tremendous get for a team void of anything relating to defense basically ever. Most importantly, Phoenix can properly market “Drogon” in some capacity as a fire-breathing dragon Game Of Thrones style, and I need that. Embrace the two-way unicorn, er dragon. Dracarys!
No. 4 Pick Option 2 — Trade Pick Utilizing Kris Dunn As Leveraging Point:
If Boston either takes Bender or trades the pick to a team who snatches him up, I’d heavily entertain trading the pick. The value just isn’t there this year in the 4-10 range, and Phoenix might be in position to capitalize on the Kris Dunn market using its pick as leverage with Minnesota at 5, New Orleans at 6 and Sacramento at 8 — all potential Dunn destinations. Enter the following possibility:
Phoenix trades the #4 pick and John Jenkins to Philadelphia for the 2017 Lakers pick (top 3 protected in ’17, unprotected in ’18) and Jerami Grant.
This is ironic because the Suns regain the Lakers pick they sacrificed for Knight’s right of first refusal. But more so it’s a hedge that the Lakers will pick up a competent center in free agency and improve enough under Walton to not land in the top 3 but still not make the playoffs in the West (safest assumption ever).
The 2017 draft class looks significantly more loaded in the lottery where even the 10th or 11th pick will likely harbor a superior player than No. 4 this year. Philly seems keen on Dunn, and with Brian Colangelo taking the reins with a huge need at lead guard this could be a viable option.
There is inherent risk because if the Lakers land in the top 3 again next year with a few key additions in ’17 free agency (a far superior class) it could significantly reduce the value of the pick. But if the idea is to acquire a star caliber player, this route should be given consideration.
Jenkins is fully non-guaranteed until July 11, 2016, so there is no financial commitment from Philly’s end required (just required to make the trade legal with Grant), and if the Sixers select Ben Simmons — combined with Dario Saric’s arrival — Grant is unlikely to see the floor. He can at least give the Suns some cost-controlled athleticism at the 4. I’d ask for Covington instead, but doubt that happens.
No. 13 Pick — Select Timothe Luwawu or Marquese Chriss:
Luwawu shouldn’t be on the board here, but if he is the Suns should jump at the opportunity to select him with Phoenix’s only other defensive small forward, P.J. Tucker, either potentially being waived on/prior to June 30 or about to be in a contract year.
Luwawu has the highest floor/ceiling combination of any wing in this class outside of Brandon Ingram to be a two-way player who can shoot and run a pick and roll. Every team needs that.
Chriss would be a high upside play given his rawness and lack of experience, but with four picks in the top 34, Phoenix can afford to roll the dice on his two-way white whale shooting and rim protecting upside. I’d consider packaging No. 13 and No. 28/34 to move up a few spots for either.
No. 28 Pick — Stash Zhou Qi or Paul Zipser:
With Bogdan Bogdanovic reportedly coming over next season the Suns probably don’t need another guaranteed rookie contract. This is the value area of the domestic draft though, and with the rookie scale potentially increasing under the next CBA current cost control is advisable. Think McDonough goes international here.
No. 34 Pick — Take another stash candidate or Caris LeVert:
LeVert is my favorite potential second round pick this year. Scary medical history for a guaranteed contract, but he’s a lottery talent.
2016 FA Plan
Step 1 — Value Signings:
My mantra for quasi-destination markets like Phoenix in 2016 free agency is to avoid overspending for second and third tier players in an inefficient market, and instead maintain cap flexibility for the far superior 2017 FA class (and beyond). Worst case scenario: the amount not spent under the projected $82.8M salary floor is re-allocated to players on the roster.
The Suns specifically should focus on targeting value free agents with upside and buy low opportunities on players like Terrence Jones. Teletovic could also be retained and Jerebko claimed on affordable contracts. If an impactful “prove it” player is available on a one-year deal, that’s a home run.
Step 2 — Chandler/Knight Trade Exploration:
The Suns should explore trades for Chandler and Knight to teams who strike out on FA once the dust settles. Atlanta, Charlotte, Miami and Dallas could present potential destination opportunities for Chandler. The Kings likewise for Knight. I wouldn’t part with significant assets to do so (Miami picks etc.), but would deal Tyson in a salary dump with a minimal asset.
Expert Reaction
By Gerald Bourguet (@GeraldBourguet)
Bravo. With so many injuries, a disgruntled Markieff Morris and a midseason head coaching change, this Suns core barely got a chance to see what it could do together. Fans are right to demand rapid change, but with so much flexibility and no clear-cut path back to relevance, additional patience may be required.
Again, Bender should be the Suns’ top draft target given his high ceiling, but if there are indications that the Celtics will take him at No. 3, Phoenix should entertain the idea of swapping picks with Boston to move up in the draft. I do like Cole’s proposed trade with Philadelphia in the event Bender is off the board, especially since the Colangelos want to compete sooner rather than later. The only problem is the 2017 draft class is expected to be so much better, so they’d really have to like Kris Dunn to give up that Lakers pick.
Luwawu or Chriss both make sense at No. 13 assuming the Suns keep the pick, and using the other two selections on draft-and-stash prospects does too.
As for free agency, everything checks out here. The Suns should avoid committing too much long-term money to second-tier free agents — which may rule out an overpay candidate like Harrison Barnes — and should try to plug up holes instead. Short of trading everyone away and dramatically committing to a long-term rebuild centered around youth and growing pains, the Suns will be looking to return to the playoffs next season. That means proven, on-the-rise players on shorter contracts, and it also means the possible returns of Teletovic and Price.
As for Knight and Chandler, I have a hard time seeing McDonough being able to swing deals for either one given their inflated contracts and all-time low trade values. But who knows? If McD can work a little extra magic, get a solid role player/young prospect/future draft pick out of it, most Suns fans would be perfectly fine with that outcome.
As you can see, there is no apparent home run move, but if the Suns can find a way to draft Dragan Bender, package the other picks for better assets, bring over Bogdan Bogdanovic, re-sign Mirza Teletovic, bring in a few useful free agents at the 3 and 4 like Kent Bazemore or Allen Crabbe, get a healthy Bledsoe, Knight and Warren back, and work on building up the trade value of Knight and Chandler, that’d be a pretty darn productive summer.