15 NBA players certain to be overpaid in free agency
By Brad Rowland
7. Festus Ezeli
In the interest of full disclosure, Ezeli was the player that I had the most trouble with including on this list. He is a 26-year-old center that is already an above-average player and, considering the perks of playing for the Warriors, there is at least a reasonable scenario in which he accepts something approaching a discount to stay with Golden State.
However, the smart money is still on the fact that Ezeli will be overpaid.
The biggest concern with the former Vanderbilt big man is durability, and that issue didn’t fade away during the 2015-2016 season. After playing 78 games as a rookie, Ezeli missed the entire 2013-2014 campaign with a knee injury, and since then, he has failed to crack the 50-game threshold in each of the past two seasons. In addition, that limited usage came with Ezeli in a pure supporting role (13.8 minutes per game over two years) and there are questions about whether he can sustain a starter-level workload.
Beyond that, Festus Ezeli is a restricted free agent, and while sometimes that can act as a buoy to raise salary offers, it can also serve as a deterrent in some cases. Unlike Harrison Barnes, Ezeli may have real incentive to remain with the Warriors from a fit standpoint. Still, there are outside forces at play, and nothing would stop a team with a need at center from floating a near-max contract in Ezeli’s direction on an upside play.
I’m not positive that Ezeli gets vastly overpaid, but given his question marks, any huge contract is a legitimate risk that a lot of people won’t be comfortable with at this stage.
Next: 6. Pau Gasol