NBA Finals 2016: Why Cavaliers will win Game 5

3. The Warriors have to play big

With Draymond Green missing the game with the suspension, the Golden State Warriors’ rotation is going to be thrown into some flux. Steve Kerr is going to have to play big more and use Festus Ezeli, Marreese Speights and Anderson Varejao to fill up the minutes Draymond Green would normally play at center.

The Cavaliers have a size advantage. They built a lead in Game Four thanks to the hard work on the glass from Tristan Thompson. The Cavaliers’ ability to dominate the glass in the first half was key to their building the lead.

Thompson beat out Andrew Bogut and Festus Ezeli and forced Steve Kerr to go to his small lineup more and more. Green snapping into attention in the second half and keeping Thompson off the glass was key. Eventually the Cavaliers had to go to Channing Frye more, hoping to spread the floor enough and give James and Kyrie Irving the driving lanes they needed.

But Thompson is still the key. He saves possessions for the Cavaliers and provides a stalwart for the team on the glass. He always made the team better and gave them the best chance at stopping the Warriors to one possession while still being able to get out to the perimeter.

The Warriors will not be able to stretch Thompson away from the basket. That will close the gap plenty for Golden State’s offense to hum along. It will force the Warriors to put a player in without that offensive ability to spread the floor and allow the Cavaliers to trap more on screens, keeping Stephen Curry under control.

Going bigger helps the Cavaliers slow the game down too. And that is Cleveland’s best shot at winning the game. The Cavaliers will be able to dictate lineups.

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