Andrew Luck’s honeymoon is over

Last week, the Indianapolis Colts signed quarterback Andrew Luck to a five-year, $123 million contract with a whopping $87 million guaranteed over the full span of the six-year deal.

Luck will certainly see at least the first three years of the pact and most likely the fourth before the front office comes calling for either a restructure or extension.

In essence, Luck is set for life and the Colts are set at the most important position in sports. All that said, Luck’s honeymoon phase in the National Football League is over.

Throughout his career to this moment, Luck has been the cheap quarterback with the rocket arm. The Colts were rising up the power rankings on an annual basis and Luck was torching defenses albeit with too many interceptions, throwing for 40 touchdowns and 4,761 yards in 2014.

However, after a miserable 2015 that followed an offseason geared toward winning it all, Luck and his teammates are going to be under the microscope. Add the biggest contract in NFL history onto that, and Luck will be in the crosshairs if things go south.

Luck has been fortunate to this point in terms of public perception. Nobody has blamed him for Indianapolis’ 7-9 misery last season, mostly taking aim at the offensive line and general manager Ryan Grigson. It will be different this year, with Luck’s dollars becoming the source of everyone’s considerable ire.

The Stanford product came in with ample hype and was seen as the messiah for a team moving on from Peyton Manning. Luck was supposed to become great and looked well on his way before throwing 15 touchdowns against 12 interceptions last year. Suddenly, a team that appeared destined for a Super Bowl march now has adversity and real questions staring it in the face.

For Luck, this season will be starkly different. He is expected to be great once more and lead the Colts deep into the playoffs, despite having a lousy supporting cast. Outside of receivers T.Y. Hilton and Sidney Moncrief, there is not a recognizable face on the offense. The defense is atrocious sans corner Vontae Davis, and the AFC South is quickly getting better.

If Luck doesn’t play magical football, the Colts will be bad. He will get booed.

This is the price one pays for signing a contract so rich. Luck will face the same criticism now that goes with being a top-flight name such as Aaron Rodgers, Cam Newton or Tom Brady. He will get creamed by the press if he has another bad campaign or even a few bad weeks. This is the nature of the world in 2016 for those in the public eye. Entertain us and do great, or else.

The Colts showed their faith in Luck with the largest sum of guaranteed money in NFL history. It was well-earned despite last year’s performance.

Fans in Indianapolis are thrilled for now, knowing Luck is in tow for years to come. They will feel – and sound – much differently should 2016 be a repeat showing of last season.

Film Study

Tyrod Taylor is going to make, or lose, a lifetime’s worth of money in 2016.

Taylor, 26, is entering the prime of his career and his second year as the starting quarterback for the Buffalo Bills. last year, Taylor got his chance after sitting for four seasons in Baltimore behind Joe Flacco an emerged as a viable player, throwing for 3,305 yards and 20 touchdowns.

Despite modest passing yardage, Taylor was an asset to Buffalo’s offense. He only tossed two interceptions after Week 4 and ran for 598 yards, outgaining all quarterbacks sans Cam Newton. For comparison’s sake, Taylor is the younger version of Alex Smith, without the winning background… yet.

If Taylor can take the next step in his maturation this year, the Bills will be a legitimate playoff contender and he will be earning a massive contract. For those two things to happen, here’s what Taylor needs to continue doing, and start doing.

Week 12: Buffalo at Kansas City

This is 1st and 10 from the BUF 37-yard line. Taylor comes out and sees single-high safety coverage with Eric Berry deep. Buffalo comes out with a stack at the top, getting Sean Smith in man-to-man coverage with Sammy Watkins. The Chiefs play primarily press-coverage, especially with Smith, who is big but doesn’t have great foot speed.

Bills offensive coordinator Greg Roman does a great job of forcing Smith to play off-man and giving Watkins a running start and a clean break. Kansas City is rushing four and dropping three underneath in zone coverage in this nickel package.

Buffalo gets single coverage across the board. Robert Woods is matched up against Marcus Peters, while Chris Hogan draws safety Ron Parker. Taylor never looks at either. He is locked on Watkins, who is about to make a double-move with an out-and-up on Smith. Smith has help with Berry to the inside and has to play Watkins’ outside shoulder, closing off the boundary.

Watkins does a great job of turning Smith around. The corner’s hips are flipped incorrectly and while Berry recognizes the play, it’s too late. For Taylor’s part, he is loading up.The throw has to be driven enough to beat Berry, and accurately placed toward the sideline for Watkins to haul in.

The throw is perfect. Taylor was averse to throwing downfield far too often in 2015, but he can do it as evidenced here. Watkins is too dynamic to go without deep throws at least twice per game.

Week 17: New York at Buffalo

This the fourth quarter of a game New York must win to reach the postseason. Its 3rd and 7 from the BUF 23-yard line and Taylor brings the Bills out in a four-wide set with trips to the left. On this play, Watkins goes in motion with Hogan wide left. On the inside slot, Greg Salas is lined up against linebacker David Harris, one of the best in the business.

New York is playing man coverage with deep zone help and is bringing pressure with safety Calvin Pryor coming on an interior blitz.

Pryor comes clean on the play with Buffalo picking up an interior stunt incorrectly. Taylor, who has nobody open, feels the pressure and scrambles left. Note the red circle, where Salas is about to shake free from Harris on an out route.

This is great to see from Taylor. Instead of most young quarterbacks with his mobility, Taylor passes up a potential running lane for a first down and keeps his eyes down the field.

He spots Salas who has broken clear of Harris beyond the first down marker. The throw is especially hard for Taylor, who is right-handed and forced to throw against his body.

This is a big-league decision and throw. Taylor hits Salas in stride at the 34-yard line and watches the play end up as a 20-yard gain and a critical first down. The youngster exhibited both poise and accuracy on this play.

Week 2: New England at Buffalo

Taylor has trips to his right in a four-wide set. It’s 3rd and 10, and the Patriots are in a dime package with man-coverage. It’s Cover 1 over the top. Buffalo has Watkins lined up to wide left, but Devin McCourty is shaded down to give help.

The Bills are running curls on the outside with Hogan going deep on the post and tight end Charles Clay (slot right) going on a stick route at the first down marker.

Taylor is loading up to throw Clay’s way (orange circle), despite him being covered well by safety Patrick Chung. This illustrates the main problem Taylor had throughout the film study of him; he doesn’t look at his second and third reads often enough.

On this play, he has Percy Harvin wide right breaking open along the sideline. He has won the route and has a clear first down. Instead, Taylor forces the ball to Clay despite having perfect pass protection.

The result is a high throw that bounces off the fingertips of a leaping Clay. Malcolm Butler slides off his coverage to make the diving interception, setting up points for the Patriots.

Overall, Taylor shows the tools to be an upper-echelon quarterback. He’s big and mobile with a good arm and nice mechanics, but he must learn to scan the field. At the NFL level, locking onto a target will eventually force a rise in interceptions.

Power Rankings

14 breakout players for 2016

1. Jordan Matthews, Philadelphia Eagles
2. Denzel Perryman, San Diego Chargers
3. Stephone Anthony, New Orleans Saints
4. Vic Beasley Jr., Atlanta Falcons
5. Markus Wheaton, Pittsburgh Steelers
6. Leonard Williams, New York Jets
7. Jeremy Langford, Chicago Bears
8. Eric Kendricks, Minnesota Vikings
9. Eric Fisher, Kansas City Chiefs
10. Dorial Green-Beckham, Tennessee Titans
11. George Iloka, Cincinnati Bengals
12. Darius Slay, Detroit Lions
13. Jermaine Kearse, Seattle Seahawks
14. Crockett Gilmore, Baltimore Ravens

Quotable

"“He kind of reminds me of Marshall Faulk. But he’s just bigger than him.” – Arizona Cardinals safety Tyrann Mathieu talking about running back David Johnson"

Mathieu said this during a regular-season game last year about the Cardinals’ rookie back, and it was captured in the Amazon Prime series All or Nothing: A Season with the Arizona Cardinals. While comparing a rookie to a Hall of Famer is a stretch, Mathieu’s words should be heeded.

Arizona desperately needs to run the ball well in 2016 to fulfill Super Bowl dreams in large part because Carson Palmer is fragile and the offensive line is decent but no Great Wall of Dallas. Last year, Johnson came from nowhere (technically coming from Northern Iowa as a third-round pick) to rush for 581 yards and eight touchdowns.

Those number are hardly Faulkian, but when you realize it was accomplished on 4.6 yards per carry, the stats take on new meaning. In addition, Johnson caught 36 passes for 457 yards and another four scores.

If Johnson can become a legitimate feature back in his second season both in the running and passing games, the Cardinals are even more dangerous.

Random Stat

Tom Brady has 22 playoff victories. Only the Dallas Cowboys, Denver Broncos, Washington Redskins, San Francisco 49ers, Green Bay Packers, Indianapolis Colts, Pittsburgh Steelers, New York Giants and Oakland Raiders have as many or more in their franchise histories.

Lessons learned this week

1. Another Cowboys defender gets suspended

The Dallas Cowboys keep taking risks. In a related story, they keep getting burned. On Thursday, it was announced that linebacker Rolando McClain had been suspended 10 games for violating the league’s substance abuse policy, per ESPN.

McClain, who was suspended four games in 2015 for the same offense, clearly has not learned his lesson. Dallas gave McClain another chance this offseason with a one-year, $5 million deal but owner/general manager Jerry Jones is now left playing the role of fool.

It begs the question, how can Jones be this desperate and frankly, dumb? Dallas is notorious for signing guys with checkered pasts or, at bare minimum, serious red flags. In recent times, Greg Hardy, Terrell Owens, Joseph Randle, Randy Gregory and Dez Bryant are examples of that philosophy, all to varying degrees.

Outside of Bryant, who was the smallest risk of the group, they have all been disasters. Hardy was a non-factor and a malcontent all last season, Randle is facing felony charges again and is no longer with the team and Gregory is suspended four games for violating the same policy as McClain.

It is safe to say the Cowboys are a mess going into training camp.

2. NFL players envious of NBA free agency windfall

On Friday, the market opened for NBA free agency and with newfound television money forcing the salary cap to spike, NBA general managers were throwing money around by the fistful.

While some big-name players landed huge and well-deserved deals (i.e. Dwight Howard), there were no-names getting tremendous paydays. Names like Timofey Mozgov (four years and $64 million), Kent Bazemore (four years and $70 million), broken down Joakim Noah (four years and $72 million), Solomon Hill (four years and $52 million) and Evan Turner (four years and $70 million) became richer than anybody ever dreamed.

This did not sit well with some NFL players, who saw middling NBA talent get massive, fully-guaranteed deals. Of course, this is apples and oranges for ample reason, but the consternation is understandable. NFL players risk everything on a weekly basis and most get a sliver of the compensation being handed out to has-beens and never-weres in the Association.

It’s simply the product of roster size and exploding television money in the NBA. Fewer players to feed means larger slices of pie.

3. Thomas Davis goes to bat for Kawaan Short

The Carolina Panthers are coming off a 15-1 season, but not everything is smooth in Charlotte these days.

Carolina lost the Super Bowl and then endured a rocky offseason which saw the franchise tag rescinded from All-Pro corner Josh Norman, allowing him to sign with the Washington Redskins. In addition, general manager Dave Gettleman made waves by taking aim at agents in the aftermath of Norman’s bizarre release.

Now, All-Pro outside linebacker Thomas Davis is speaking out. Davis, who played in the Super Bowl with a broken arm, wants to see defensive tackle Kawann Short be taken care of, according to Joe Person of the Charlotte Observer. Short is one of the best players you have not heard of, anchoring a terrific front with 11 sacks in 2015.

At 6-foot-3 and 315 pounds, Short, 27, has a year remaining on his contract and reportedly wants to be paid among the elite at his position. This likely means a contract within the range of Fletcher Cox and Ndamukong Suh, putting the numbers roughly around six years and $110 million with $65 million guaranteed.

Gettleman may need to use the tag again to retain Short. This time, he has to find a way to work out a long-term deal for his budding superstar.

4. Johnny Manziel’s suspension least of his problems

Last week, the NFL announced free-agent quarterback Johnny Manziel would be suspended the first four games of the 2016 season for violating the league;s substance abuse policy. This amounts to being given a traffic ticket you will never have to pay.

Manziel’s career in the NFL is over. He won’t be playing in 2016, or 2017, or ever. He was a colossal bust after the Cleveland Browns selected him 22nd-overall in the 2014 NFL Draft.

However, to believe this is Manziel’s greatest problem at the moment is to miss the juncture this 23-year-old is at in his life. Manziel stated that starting July 1, he would become sober. If this doesn’t stick by some miracle, we will only see his life spiral further.

Manziel doesn’t seem capable of making good choices, as his Instagram account and many other reported incidents will show. He’s facing charges for alleged assault against a former girlfriend. If that’s not enough, there was an ugly incident this spring where Manziel and his friends were accused of trashing a million-dollar home while being in possession of a litany of substances including cocaine and mushrooms.

It may not be likely, but here is to hoping that somehow, Manziel figures out life and starts facing his demons instead of tirelessly running from them.

5. Supplemental Draft not going to excite in 2016

Sometimes, you get some great intrigue in the NFL Supplemental Draft. It does not appear that 2016 is going to provide that type of excitement.

It has been announced that six players are eligible to be drafted on July 14, per NFL.com. If a team decides to spend a pick in the proceedings, it has to surrender the same-round pick in the 2017 NFL Draft, so there is legitimate risk involved.

Of the half-dozen players available, only Ole Miss Rebels cornerback Tee Shepard has any chance of being drafted. Shepard isn’t considered a great prospect, but could fetch a late-round pick considering his upside and playing a position of need.

In the past, we have seen some notable names go off the board including Bernie Kosar, Josh Gordon and Cris Carter. Last year, we saw the St. Louis Rams select offensive tackle Isaiah Battle in the fifth round. Battle is yet to play in a game.

History lesson of the week

Only two players ever played for both an undefeated and winless team. Larry Ball and Maulty Moore were on both the 1972 Miami Dolphins (17-0, undefeated) and 1976 Tampa Bay Buccaneers (0-14, winless).

Parting shot

It is now or never for Jacksonville Jaguars head coach Gus Bradley. Bradley is entering his fourth year with the franchise and to this point, owns a 12-36 record. That’s not good.

Bradley has had poor teams to coach, but that isn’t an excuse in 2016. Jaguars general manager Dave Caldwell was active this offseason, signing corner Prince Amukamara, safety Tashaun Gipson, defensive lineman Malik Jackson, running back Chris Ivory and offensive tackle Kelvin Beachum. In the draft, Caldwell selected inside linebacker Myles Jack and corner Jalen Ramsey, bolstering a defense that also gets outside linebacker Dante Fowler Jr. back from a torn ACL.

Jacksonville has to, at least, have a winning record. The Jaguars should be in competition to win the AFC South, considering both the Titans and Colts are down, while the Houston Texans are far from a lock to repeat as division champs.

With Blake Bortles, Allen Robinson, Allen Hurns and a revamped roster, Bradley’s time is now. Otherwise, it will be someone else inheriting a desirable young, talented group.