Fantasy Golf: Open Championship DFS Analysis
Fantasy Golf: Open Championship Preview
For any of you jonesing for some action given the current MLB All-Star break, look no further than this weekend for the Open Championship.
This year’s Open will be played at Royal Troon Golf Club. This will be the first time that the Open has been back to the course since 2004. This obviously throws a wrench into the predictive analysis, as there is no reliable course history data, with a large enough sample size, to reference.
Playing at just a shade under 7,200 yards with only three par fives, Royal Troon plays as the typical European links style course. Standard evaluation of a course generally identifies if we want to target “ball strikers” or “bombers.” While all signs point to targeting ball strikers for accuracy, Royal Troon does have some long par fours, where distance could be important. Keeping this in mind, I’ll look to target those who keep the ball in play, but in the same notion, being mindful to not neglect distance. It’s still early to judge, but if the standard European rainy weather pops up, this too would bump up the value of guys that hit the long ball.
After learning about the course and considering some extraneous variables, I like to identify some key statistical metrics that fit for the tournament. This week I will be targeting:
- Greens in Regulation (GIR) – This represents the percentage of holes in which a golfer reaches the green in at least two strokes less than par. This is my favorite metric to use when the course calls for the targeting of accurate golfers.
- Recent performance – This goes for any data, but specifically looking at top ten finishes and missed cuts, over the past five to eight weeks.
- Scrambling – This is the percentage of holes is which a golfer avoids scoring bogey or worse after failing to hit the green in regulation.
After factoring in pricing, here are a few guys I think are worth talking about (for better or worse).
Next: Top Open Championship Picks
Bubba Watson – Ridiculously cheap. It’s dumbfounding how he’s fallen to $8,000 after being priced anywhere from $9,300 to 12,100 in recent weeks. The glaring obvious knock on Bubba is how he sets up with this course. While his game isn’t a good match, its hard to ignore the value and his consistency in making the cut, of late. Bubba warrants both cash and tournament consideration.
Matt Kuchar – Speaking of making the cut. Kuchar is the cut making machine. While failing to provide tremendous upside, Kuchar is almost a must play in cash games at $7800. I plan on having exposure to him in tournaments, but keep in mind that his ownership should be quite high.
Emiliano Grillo – Ranking relatively high in GIR and given his tremendous recent performance, Grillo will be a lock in both cash games and tournaments.
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Kevin Na- I don’t have much to say with Na. He always finds a way to choke on Sundays, but at $6500, he’s free equity in a cash game. He’ll be a fade in tournaments for me, but a fairly safe cash option.
Brendan Steele – Again DraftKings fails to accurately price Steele at $6,100, and he becomes a must play. Steele is a great ball striker with driving distance as well. His recent performance has led me to victory in the past and this is not the week to think any differently. I do think he’ll have a decent chunk of ownership in tournaments, but I’ll take the savings.
The Big Four (Rory, Day, DJ, Spieth) – Saving the best for last. We’ll I guess that depends on how you look at it. For me, it’s hard to determine who, if any, will get my allotted salary. When weighing ownership, pricing, and the player, I think Rory is my favorite option out of the group (it pains me to say that), followed by Day, DJ, and Spieth. While Spieth is an auto lock at Augusta, I’ll be fading him here.
Next: Fantasy Baseball: Minor League Waiver Targets
In addition, I’ll be overexposed in comparison to the field ownership on, Stenson, Cabrera-Bello, Fisher, and Garcia.
Best of luck!