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College Football: 10 teams doomed to be worse in 2016

By John Buhler

Jan 1, 2015; New Orleans, LA, USA; Alabama Crimson Tide head coach Nick Saban against the Ohio State Buckeyes during the second quarter in the 2015 Sugar Bowl at Mercedes-Benz Superdome. Mandatory Credit: Derick E. Hingle-USA TODAY Sports
Jan 1, 2015; New Orleans, LA, USA; Alabama Crimson Tide head coach Nick Saban against the Ohio State Buckeyes during the second quarter in the 2015 Sugar Bowl at Mercedes-Benz Superdome. Mandatory Credit: Derick E. Hingle-USA TODAY Sports /
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Nov 28, 2015; Starkville, MS, USA; Mississippi State Bulldogs head coach Dan Mullen looks up at the scoreboard during the second quarter of the game against the Mississippi Rebels at Davis Wade Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Matt Bush-USA TODAY Sports
Nov 28, 2015; Starkville, MS, USA; Mississippi State Bulldogs head coach Dan Mullen looks up at the scoreboard during the second quarter of the game against the Mississippi Rebels at Davis Wade Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Matt Bush-USA TODAY Sports /

Let’s be completely honest here: Dan Mullen is an amazing football coach for the Mississippi State Bulldogs. He’s gone 55-35 (26-30) in seven years as the Bulldogs’ head coach in the brutal SEC West. Mullen has taken Mississippi State to six straight bowl games and was the first team to ever be ranked No. 1 by the College Football Playoff Selection Committee in 2014.

Mullen probably has the best job security of any coach in the SEC. However, he just may not have the talent this season to get his team to anything better than a .500 regular season record. Mullen loses his best player to date in quarterback Dak Prescott to the Dallas Cowboys. One doesn’t simply replace a player like Prescott at quarterback.

To make a bowl game, Mississippi State is going to have to go a perfect 4-0 in the non-conference, as it is hard to see more than maybe three victories in SEC play this season. Mississippi State’s best non-conference opponent will by BYU, a team trying to impress the Big 12 to get a bid to join that Power 5 conference. That’s a huge non-conference game for the Bulldogs in Provo on October 14th.

A reasonable non-conference slate of games and two manageable games out of the SEC East in lowly South Carolina on September 10th and cross-divisional rival Kentucky on October 22nd should help the Bulldogs get their two needed SEC wins.

The problem is if they drop that game to BYU in Provo on October 14th, where will Mississippi State pick up that needed third SEC win to get to at least 6-6 (3-5) on the year to reach bowl eligibility for the seventh straight season?

Mississippi State faces the three biggest threats to win the SEC West this season all on the road: at LSU on September 17th, at Alabama on November 12th, and at arch rival Ole Miss on November 26th. Anything can happen in the Egg Bowl, but wins at LSU and Alabama seem too far out of reach for the Bulldogs.

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What this inevitably means is that Mississippi State’s season is going to come down largely to these three SEC West home games: Auburn on October 8th, Texas A&M on November 5th, and Arkansas on November 19th. It might be in the Bulldogs’ best interest to get a win against Auburn early, as the winner of the Southwest Classic between rivals Arkansas and Texas A&M might end up being an SEC West dark horse.

Mullen is going to figure it out to ensure that this Mississippi State team is going to get to a bowl game for the seventh straight season. However without a playmaker like Prescott, Mississippi State isn’t going to go 9-4 (4-4) again in 2016. They’ll be more in that six to eight-win range before bowl season.

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