SEC Power Rankings 2016: Pre-Week 1
By John Buhler
Projected Week 1 Losses
Losses will have a team in the bottom of these weekly SEC power rankings. The worst loss of the week will be 14th, while the toughest loss/closest defeat will be at the top of this group. In this trial run, I have four SEC teams losing Week 1. All four losing teams experience varying types of defeats in this mock for Week 1.
South Carolina will play in Nashville for the SEC regular season opener versus the Vanderbilt Commodores. Vanderbilt enters the games as a 2.5-point favorite over South Carolina. The Commodores should have the better defense and more stability on its coaching staff, as this is Will Muschamp’s first season coaching South Carolina.
While Vanderbilt will probably be better than 4-8 this season, the Commodores still have a negative perception as an SEC East doormat, which will hurt South Carolina’s ranking should they end up losing. This will probably be a low-scoring defensive struggle, but Vanderbilt should be able to cover the spread to get its first crucial SEC victory of the season.
With this being South Carolina’s first SEC loss, this puts the Gamecocks in last place in the SEC before mid-September. Of all the losses potentially coming on Labor Day weekend, this is a SEC East loss for South Carolina and therefore the worst performance in Week 1.
The Missouri Tigers are probably in for a rough 2016. It will be the first season Barry Odom as the head coach. Immense offseason turmoil at the university won’t help him get Missouri to a bowl this holiday season.
Missouri’s Week 1 game could be an ugly one for the Tigers, as they have to travel to Morgantown to face Dana Holgorsen’s West Virginia Mountaineers. West Virginia will be a 12.5-point home favorite over Missouri. Unless sophomore quarterback Drew Lock shines in Week 1, it will be hard for Missouri to keep pace with Holgorsen’ high-octane aerial attack in Morgantown.
Should Missouri lose by more than two touchdowns, one could argue that this is the worst loss of the week in the SEC. That being said, we don’t really know how good West Virginia will be this season in the Big 12. A crushing loss to West Virginia won’t do well on these rankings, but it won’t sting as bad as an SEC East loss.
Having Auburn at No. 12 demonstrates what it looks like to get blown out by an elite football team at home. Auburn hosts National Championship contender Clemson in Week 1. Juggernaut Clemson is an eight-point road favorite. Auburn could be rewarded for playing hard against the Tigers, but a loss is still a loss.
Nobody will play a tougher Week 1 opponent than Auburn does in Clemson, making Auburn the most likely team in the SEC to begin the year 0-1. There’s nothing wrong with losing to Clemson, but Auburn won’t be rewarded for it in the SEC power rankings.
Should Auburn knock off Clemson at home, it would skyrocket the Tigers to probably No. 1 in these weekly SEC power rankings, as it would easily be the best win any team in the Power 5 could have in Week 1. Auburn will either be in the loss group next week or at the top of the charts with a signature win on its season’s resume.
According to the spread, the closest projected game any SEC team will play in Week 1 will be the Texas A&M Aggies when they host the UCLA Bruins at Kyle Field. Texas A&M is a slight one-point home favorite over the Pac-12 South contending Bruins.
Though Texas A&M can beat UCLA at home, the Bruins do have Josh Rosen at quarterback and that will be the difference in this mock trial. Since UCLA is ranked No. 16 in the country and this will be a close three-point loss, this would be the best loss endured by any SEC team in Week 1.
If Texas A&M would win this, expect the Aggies to be somewhere in that No. 3 to No. 6 range. That would mean they knocked off a ranked Power 5 team at home despite being unranked themselves. Like Auburn, Texas A&M has a lot to gain with a strong Week 1 win at home versus a ranked opponent. Only an embarrassment at home to UCLA will drop Texas A&M further down the SEC power rankings.
Next: No. 10-8