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50 Shades of Fantasy Football, Vol. IV: Week 1

By Mike Randle

Jan 16, 2016; Glendale, AZ, USA; Green Bay Packers quarterback Aaron Rodgers (12) celebrates a touchdown with running back Eddie Lacy (27) against the Arizona Cardinals in the first quarter of a NFC Divisional round playoff game at University of Phoenix Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Mark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY Sports
Jan 16, 2016; Glendale, AZ, USA; Green Bay Packers quarterback Aaron Rodgers (12) celebrates a touchdown with running back Eddie Lacy (27) against the Arizona Cardinals in the first quarter of a NFC Divisional round playoff game at University of Phoenix Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Mark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY Sports /
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Feb 7, 2016; Santa Clara, CA, USA; Carolina Panthers running back Jonathan Stewart (28) dives over the pile for a touchdown in Super Bowl 50 at Levi
Feb 7, 2016; Santa Clara, CA, USA; Carolina Panthers running back Jonathan Stewart (28) dives over the pile for a touchdown in Super Bowl 50 at Levi /
  1. The common fantasy football belief is that a running quarterback helps the productivity of the lead running back, because more running lanes will open when the defense needs to account for a mobile quarterback.
  2. Over the past two seasons, Carolina Panthers quarterback Cam Newton is averaging 34.7 fantasy points per game on the road when he rushes for 50 yards or more. When Newton has rushed for fewer than 50 yards on the road, that number drops to 23.9 fantasy points per game.
  3. In 2015, the Denver defense gave up almost 30 more rushing yards per game when they were home (122.25 to 92.5). However, in those eight home games, the Broncos only allowed 11 yards rushing per game by the opposing quarterback. This includes games against mobile quarterbacks such as Alex Smith, Teddy Bridgewater, and Aaron Rodgers.
  4. Last season, when Newton rushed for 50 yards or more, running back Jonathan Stewart averaged 59.3 yards and 0.3 touchdowns per game. When Newton rushed for less than 50 yards per game, he averaged 81.1 yards and 0.6 touchdowns. Stewart was actually better when Newton ran less. 
  5. Atlanta running back Devonta Freeman led the NFL with 55 rushes inside the Red Zone last season. Who finished second? Panthers running back Jonathan Stewart with 48 rushes.

Prediction:  The “running quarterback” theory will not apply to the opening game of the 2016 season. Despite going against the top fantasy defense from 2015, Panthers running back Jonathan Stewart will exceed expectations and finish as a top 20 Week 1 fantasy running back, while last year’s MVP, Cam Newton, will fail to reach 50 yards rushing.

Next: Shades 6-16

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