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50 Shades of Fantasy Football, Vol. IV: Week 1

By Mike Randle

Jan 16, 2016; Glendale, AZ, USA; Green Bay Packers quarterback Aaron Rodgers (12) celebrates a touchdown with running back Eddie Lacy (27) against the Arizona Cardinals in the first quarter of a NFC Divisional round playoff game at University of Phoenix Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Mark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY Sports
Jan 16, 2016; Glendale, AZ, USA; Green Bay Packers quarterback Aaron Rodgers (12) celebrates a touchdown with running back Eddie Lacy (27) against the Arizona Cardinals in the first quarter of a NFC Divisional round playoff game at University of Phoenix Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Mark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY Sports /
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Dec 13, 2015; Green Bay, WI, USA; Green Bay Packers wide receiver Randall Cobb (18) leaps but falls short of the end zone after catching a pass in the first quarter during the game against the Dallas Cowboys at Lambeau Field. Mandatory Credit: Benny Sieu-USA TODAY Sports
Dec 13, 2015; Green Bay, WI, USA; Green Bay Packers wide receiver Randall Cobb (18) leaps but falls short of the end zone after catching a pass in the first quarter during the game against the Dallas Cowboys at Lambeau Field. Mandatory Credit: Benny Sieu-USA TODAY Sports /
  1. Last season, Aaron Rodgers averaged 25.5 completions, 285 passing yards, 2.67 touchdowns, 0.3 interceptions, and 29.1 fantasy points when Randall Cobb had at least 50 yards receiving.
  2. Rodgers averaged 19.6 completions, 211.7 passing yards, 1.5 touchdowns, 0.6 interceptions, and 19.6 fantasy points when Randall Cobb failed to reach at least 50 yards receiving.
  3. That means Cobb’s success translated to six more completions, 74 more passing yards, 1.1 extra touchdowns, half as many interceptions, and almost 10 more fantasy points per game.
  4. Jacksonville ranked 29th in pass defense in 2015 with 268.2 yards allowed per game.
  5. Randall Cobb played the entire 2014 with Jordy Nelson on the field, and the entire 2015 season without Jordy Nelson on the field.
  6. When Nelson was on the field, Cobb averaged 5.8 more points per game in Point Per Reception (PPR) scoring, and 5.1 more points per game in standard scoring. Cobb also had twice as many touchdowns (12) and averaged 29 more receiving yards per game.

Prediction : Cobb finishes as a top-10 fantasy football wide receiver in Week 1, accumulating over 100 yards receiving and has at least one touchdown at Jacksonville. Furthermore, Rodgers will use Cobb’s production as a springboard to a top three overall week one fantasy quarterback finish. 

Oct 11, 2015; Baltimore, MD, USA; Baltimore Ravens running back Javorius Allen (37) runs against the Cleveland Browns at M&T Bank Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Mitch Stringer-USA TODAY Sports
Oct 11, 2015; Baltimore, MD, USA; Baltimore Ravens running back Javorius Allen (37) runs against the Cleveland Browns at M&T Bank Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Mitch Stringer-USA TODAY Sports /
  1. Baltimore Ravens running back Javorius Allen averaged 3.8 yards per carry during his rookie season last year. He also caught 45 passes for 353 yards, finishing 12th in the league for receptions by a running back.
  2.  Allen received 41.9 percent of the teams total carries, 40 percent of the Red Zone carries, and 42.9 percent of the goal line (inside five yard line) carries.
  3. Fellow running back Justin Forsett received 48.7 percent of the teams carries, 42.2 percent of the Red Zone carries, and 28.6 percent of the goal line rushing attempts.
  4.  Forsett initially failed to make the Ravens final 53 man roster. He was cut and then resigned on Monday.
  5. The other other healthy Ravens running back is Terrance West.  In his two years in the league, West has 904 total yards, 15 receptions and four touchdowns. Last season alone, Allen tripled West’s career total in receptions and scored three total touchdowns.

Prediction: Allen is the Ravens’ top running back fantasy point scorer in Week 1 at home against Buffalo. Allen gets the majority of rushing carries and receptions en route to a double-digit fantasy performance.  

Next: Shades 17-28

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