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50 Shades of Fantasy Football, Vol. IV: Week 1

By Mike Randle

Jan 16, 2016; Glendale, AZ, USA; Green Bay Packers quarterback Aaron Rodgers (12) celebrates a touchdown with running back Eddie Lacy (27) against the Arizona Cardinals in the first quarter of a NFC Divisional round playoff game at University of Phoenix Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Mark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY Sports
Jan 16, 2016; Glendale, AZ, USA; Green Bay Packers quarterback Aaron Rodgers (12) celebrates a touchdown with running back Eddie Lacy (27) against the Arizona Cardinals in the first quarter of a NFC Divisional round playoff game at University of Phoenix Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Mark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY Sports /
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Jan 10, 2016; Landover, MD, USA; Washington Redskins quarterback Kirk Cousins (8) scores a touchdown in front of Green Bay Packers linebacker Joe Thomas (48) during the second half in a NFC Wild Card playoff football game at FedEx Field. Mandatory Credit: Brad Mills-USA TODAY Sports
Jan 10, 2016; Landover, MD, USA; Washington Redskins quarterback Kirk Cousins (8) scores a touchdown in front of Green Bay Packers linebacker Joe Thomas (48) during the second half in a NFC Wild Card playoff football game at FedEx Field. Mandatory Credit: Brad Mills-USA TODAY Sports /
  1. Last season, Washington Redskins quarterback Kirk Cousins averaged 260.3 passing yards, 1.8 touchdowns, 0.7 interceptions, and 22.8 fantasy points per game.
  2. Cousins averaged 271.1 yards, two touchdowns, 0.25 interceptions, and 26.5 fantasy points per game at home.
  3. At home last season, tight end Jordan Reed averaged 17.25 fantasy points in PPR scoring leagues.
  4. In 2015, Pittsburgh ranked 30th in overall pass defense, yielding 271.9 yards per game.
  5. Pittsburgh gave up the 8th most fantasy points to opposing tight ends in standard scoring leagues (8.8). That number increased to 11.6 standard points per game on the road
  6. Monday Night Football will feature the Washington Redskins at home vs. the Pittsburgh Steelers in week one.
  7. Las Vegas has the Over/Under line for the game at 50.5. That is the second highest total among all games.

Prediction: Cousins will throw for over 300 yards and two or more touchdowns at home against Pittsburgh, and tight end Jordan Reed will be a top three fantasy tight end for Week 1.  

Sep 20, 2015; New Orleans, LA, USA; Tampa Bay Buccaneers wide receiver Vincent Jackson (83) catches the ball to score a touchdown in the second quarter against the New Orleans Saints at the Mercedes-Benz Superdome. Mandatory Credit: Chuck Cook-USA TODAY Sports
Sep 20, 2015; New Orleans, LA, USA; Tampa Bay Buccaneers wide receiver Vincent Jackson (83) catches the ball to score a touchdown in the second quarter against the New Orleans Saints at the Mercedes-Benz Superdome. Mandatory Credit: Chuck Cook-USA TODAY Sports /
  1. Buccaneers wide receiver Vincent Jackson missed all or part of nine games last season due to knee issues. In his seven full games played, Jackson received 24.2 percent of the passing targets. Projected over a full season, that would have ranked 13th at the position.
  2. Jackson received 28.3 percent of the Red Zone Targets, and had five total Red Zone receptions. In addition, all three of his touchdowns came in the Red Zone.
  3. Fellow wide receiver Mike Evans received 30.1 percent of the passing targets. He ranked fifth overall at the wide receiver position.
  4. Evans only received 23.9 percent of the Red Zone Targets. He had three total Red Zone receptions.
  5. In the games that Vincent Jackson did not play, Evans averaged 12.5 targets and 107.7 yards per game.
  6. In the games that Vincent Jackson played, Evans averaged 8.1 targets and 62.7 yards per game.

Prediction: In a surprise to fantasy owners, 33-year-old Vincent Jackson scores more fantasy points than fellow wide receiver Mike Evans in a high-scoring Week 1 clash in New Orleans.

Next: Shades 42-50

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