5 best bets for Week 2 NFL games

Sep 11, 2016; Glendale, AZ, USA; New England Patriots quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo (10) runs the ball in the second half against the Arizona Cardinals at University of Phoenix Stadium. The Patriots defeated the Cardinals 23-21. Mandatory Credit: Mark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY Sports /

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Jan 3, 2016; Miami Gardens, FL, USA; Miami Dolphins quarterback Ryan Tannehill (17) carries the ball against New England Patriots during the second half at Sun Life Stadium. The Dolphins won 20-10. Mandatory Credit: Steve Mitchell-USA TODAY Sports /

New England Patriots (-6.5) vs. Miami Dolphins

FiftyFourPercent:

The short answer: In Bill Belichick we trust, especially in this division match-up. The Patriots have beaten the Dolphins seven consecutive times at home and are 15-6-3 (71 percent) against the spread the past three years in Foxboro. Belichick helped coax 11 victories out of Matt Cassel the last time Tom Brady missed significant time. Jimmy Garappolo can do the job, especially given the receiving weapons he has. Rob Gronkowski should be back too.

Miami’s back seven on defense are a train wreck, and the offensive line is inept at run blocking, a problem made worse if center Mike Pouncey has to miss a second straight week with a hip injury. Miami’s pass rush is reduced, too, if Mario Williams can’t go after suffering a concussion last Sunday. Head coach Adam Gase has a sharp offensive mind, but it’s going to take the Dolphins a while to pick up his system. Coming off a game against the highly physical Seahawks always is a draining experience, more so when the game was in Seattle. The Dolphins are 2-4 ATS in their last six road contests and 1-5 ATS on FieldTurf.

Glauser:

No Brady? No Gronkowski? No problem! The Patriots’ “next man up” strategy has been working swimmingly under Belichick for nearly two decades, and such was the case again in Week 1 with an impressive victory over the Cardinals.

Another good bet in this game could be the under for total points (42), especially if the Pats go Gronkless again. The Dolphins’ D made a nice showing against the Seahawks, while their offense likely poses little threat for New England.

Next: AFC North Showdown, Part 1

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