50 Shades of Fantasy Football, Vol. VI: No place like home

Sep 18, 2016; Denver, CO, USA; Indianapolis Colts quarterback Andrew Luck (12) looks to pass in the third quarter against the Denver Broncos at Sports Authority Field at Mile High. Mandatory Credit: Isaiah J. Downing-USA TODAY Sports
Sep 18, 2016; Denver, CO, USA; Indianapolis Colts quarterback Andrew Luck (12) looks to pass in the third quarter against the Denver Broncos at Sports Authority Field at Mile High. Mandatory Credit: Isaiah J. Downing-USA TODAY Sports /
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Sep 11, 2016; Baltimore, MD, USA; Buffalo Bills quarterback Tyrod Taylor (5) attempts to throw the ball as Baltimore Ravens linebacker ZaDarius Smith (90) chases at M&T Bank Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Mitch Stringer-USA TODAY Sports
Sep 11, 2016; Baltimore, MD, USA; Buffalo Bills quarterback Tyrod Taylor (5) attempts to throw the ball as Baltimore Ravens linebacker ZaDarius Smith (90) chases at M&T Bank Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Mitch Stringer-USA TODAY Sports /

12.  In 2015, no team averaged more rushing yards per game than the Buffalo Bills.  Led by offensive coordinator Greg Roman, the Bills tallied 152 rushing yards per contest.

13.  Buffalo also ranked 28th last season in passing at 208.9 yards per game. This is not surprising, given Roman’s affinity for a “power running game.”

14.  Greg Roman was fired this week as Buffalo’s offensive coordinator.  He was replaced by current Assistant Head Coach Anthony Lynn, whose prior experience includes 12 years as a running backs coach for five different teams.

15.  During that time, Lynn has coached an incredible pedigree of running backs including Fred Taylor, Jamal Lewis, Thomas Jones, LaDainian Tomlinson, Chris Ivory, and now LeSean McCoy.

16.  Head coach Rex Ryan said the main reason for Roman’s termination was the failure to allow the team’s most dynamic playmakers to have a major impact on the outcome of the game.

17. The Arizona Cardinals defense was substantially better at home than on the road last season. Out of their 36 team sacks, 70 percent came at home.  They averaged 26 percent fewer defensive fantasy points in road games.

18.  Last season, Bills quarterback Tyrod Taylor averaged more passing yards, rushing yards, touchdowns, and fantasy points at home than on the road.

19.  Las Vegas has the Buffalo-Arizona game at an over/under line of 47.5.  This is the third highest over/under line of Week Three.

Prediction:  The change in offensive coordinator has a positive effect on the Bills star offensive players, with Taylor and McCoy in particular netting top-12 fantasy weeks at their respective positions.  

Aug 20, 2016; Jacksonville, FL, USA; Jacksonville Jaguars wide receiver Allen Hurns (88) and wide receiver Allen Robinson (15) celebrate after a touchdown in the second quarter against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers at EverBank Field. Mandatory Credit: Logan Bowles-USA TODAY Sports
Aug 20, 2016; Jacksonville, FL, USA; Jacksonville Jaguars wide receiver Allen Hurns (88) and wide receiver Allen Robinson (15) celebrate after a touchdown in the second quarter against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers at EverBank Field. Mandatory Credit: Logan Bowles-USA TODAY Sports /

20.  The Jacksonville Jaguars are one of only six NFL teams currently averaging over 300 passing yards per game.  They are fifth in the league at 309.6 yards per game.

21.  The Baltimore Ravens are currently the NFL’s stingiest pass defense, allowing 168.5 passing yards per game. They only allowed 111 yards to the Bills in Week One, and 260 yards to the Browns in Week 2.

22.  The Browns had thrown for over 100 yards and two touchdowns before quarterback Josh McCown hurt his shoulder in the first quarter.  This included two touchdown passes to rookie wide receiver Corey Coleman.

23.  Blake Bortles led all NFL quarterbacks last season in Deep Ball Attempts with 110. That was 12 more than Drew Brees (second), and 25 more than Ben Roethlisberger (third).

24. Last season, Bortles was tied for first in Red Zone pass attempts per game (5.9). He was also tied for second in passing touchdowns with 35.

25.  Last season through two games, Jaguars wide receiver Allen Robinson had seven receptions on 18 targets for 182 yards. This season, through two games Robinson has nine receptions on 20 targets for 126 yards.

26.  In 2015, Robinson finished third overall at the wide receiver position with 14 Red Zone receptions. This season, he only has one Red Zone target. 

27.  Robinson finished 2015 as the fourth best fantasy wide receiver with 80 catches for 1,400 yards and a league leading 14 touchdown catches.

28. In road games last season, Robinson averaged 8.25 targets, 4.12 receptions, 74.5 yards, and 16.2 fantasy points per game in PPR scoring leagues.

29. In home games last season, Robinson averaged 10.7 targets, 5.9 receptions, 101 yards, and 21.2 fantasy points per game in PPR scoring leagues.

30. The 2-0 Ravens are favored by one point over the 0-2 Jaguars. The over/under line of 47.5 is tied for the second highest of Week 3.

Prediction:  The Jaguars, being true home underdogs, get their first win of the season against the Ravens. Robinson gets his first touchdown en route to a big Jacksonville win.