50 Shades of Fantasy Football, Vol. VII: Buyin’ on the Bye

Sep 25, 2016; Philadelphia, PA, USA; Philadelphia Eagles running back Wendell Smallwood (28) is tackled near the goal line by Pittsburgh Steelers cornerback William Gay (22) and cornerback Artie Burns (25) during the third quarter at Lincoln Financial Field. Mandatory Credit: Bill Streicher-USA TODAY Sports
Sep 25, 2016; Philadelphia, PA, USA; Philadelphia Eagles running back Wendell Smallwood (28) is tackled near the goal line by Pittsburgh Steelers cornerback William Gay (22) and cornerback Artie Burns (25) during the third quarter at Lincoln Financial Field. Mandatory Credit: Bill Streicher-USA TODAY Sports /
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Nov 15, 2015; Pittsburgh, PA, USA; The Pittsburgh Steelers defense huddles against the Cleveland Browns during the third quarter at Heinz Field. The Steelers won 30-9.Mandatory Credit: Charles LeClaire-USA TODAY Sports
Nov 15, 2015; Pittsburgh, PA, USA; The Pittsburgh Steelers defense huddles against the Cleveland Browns during the third quarter at Heinz Field. The Steelers won 30-9.Mandatory Credit: Charles LeClaire-USA TODAY Sports /
  1. The Pittsburgh Steelers defense is currently the 28th ranked defense in fantasy football. They are 30th in the NFL in passing yards allowed per game (332.0 ypg).
  2. However, the Steelers D is fourth overall in rushing yards allowed per game (75.3 ypg).
  3. Pittsburgh’s next two games are at home against teams that need to run the ball: the Kansas City Chiefs and New York Jets. Kansas City’s lead running back Spencer Ware is fifth in yards per carry (4.9) among running backs with at least 25 carries. The Jets are seventh in the league in rushing yards per game averaging at 130.7.
  4. Chiefs quarterback Alex Smith is averaging just 186 yards and 9.5 fantasy points on the road this season. At home, Smith is averaging 300 passing yards and 25.1 fantasy points per game.
  5. On the road this season, Chiefs wide receiver Jeremy Maclin only had 68 receiving yards and failed to catch a touchdown.  In that game, tight end Travis Kelce only had 34 receiving yards.

Prediction:  After a terrible performance against intrastate rival Philadelphia, the Steelers bounce back with a big win against Kansas City on Sunday Night Football.  he Steelers defense, currently 28th in fantasy, has a top-12 performance the next two weeks.

Sep 25, 2016; Jacksonville, FL, USA; Baltimore Ravens quarterback Joe Flacco (5) throws the ball prior to the game against the Jacksonville Jaguars at EverBank Field. Mandatory Credit: Reinhold Matay-USA TODAY Sports
Sep 25, 2016; Jacksonville, FL, USA; Baltimore Ravens quarterback Joe Flacco (5) throws the ball prior to the game against the Jacksonville Jaguars at EverBank Field. Mandatory Credit: Reinhold Matay-USA TODAY Sports /
  1. Baltimore Ravens quarterback Joe Flacco is ranked 23rd at the position in fantasy football this season, behind the following quarterbacks: Dak Prescott, Alex Smith, and Blaine Gabbert.
  2. Baltimore “boasts” the 25th ranked offense in the league, ranking 21st in passing yards per game (242 ypg) and 26th in rushing  (82.3 ypg). The Ravens are averaging 19 points per game, which is just 24th in the league.
  3. The Baltimore Ravens are 3-0 on the season. They are one of only five undefeated teams in the NFL.
  4. The Ravens play the Oakland Raiders at home. The Raiders have the worst defense in the NFL, having given up an average of 476 yards per game.
  5. The Raiders flew across the country for a 1:00 pm start in Tennessee last week. They are now flying back across country for a 1:00 pm start in Baltimore.
  6. This season, the following teams have played back to back road games:  Green Bay, Cincinnati, Tampa Bay, New York Jets, Baltimore Ravens, San Francisco, and Atlanta.  Their combined record in the second consecutive road game is 2-5.  The teams that won had extremely short trips for one of the games (Baltimore to Cleveland, Atlanta to New Orleans).
  7. In those seven games the team that traveled across country has given up an average of 27.3 points.

Prediction:  The Raiders, after a big win on the road in Tennessee, get drubbed in Baltimore. Joe Flacco has his best week of the season, finishing as a top-12 fantasy QB. Flacco should be owned in all leagues as a great bye week replacement for the next eight weeks.