50 Shades of Fantasy Football, Vol. VII: Buyin’ on the Bye

Sep 25, 2016; Philadelphia, PA, USA; Philadelphia Eagles running back Wendell Smallwood (28) is tackled near the goal line by Pittsburgh Steelers cornerback William Gay (22) and cornerback Artie Burns (25) during the third quarter at Lincoln Financial Field. Mandatory Credit: Bill Streicher-USA TODAY Sports
Sep 25, 2016; Philadelphia, PA, USA; Philadelphia Eagles running back Wendell Smallwood (28) is tackled near the goal line by Pittsburgh Steelers cornerback William Gay (22) and cornerback Artie Burns (25) during the third quarter at Lincoln Financial Field. Mandatory Credit: Bill Streicher-USA TODAY Sports /
facebooktwitterreddit
Prev
4 of 5
Next
Sep 25, 2016; Arlington, TX, USA; Chicago Bears tight end Zach Miller (86) catches a touchdown pass against Dallas Cowboys free safety Byron Jones (31) in the third quarter at AT&T Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Tim Heitman-USA TODAY Sports
Sep 25, 2016; Arlington, TX, USA; Chicago Bears tight end Zach Miller (86) catches a touchdown pass against Dallas Cowboys free safety Byron Jones (31) in the third quarter at AT&T Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Tim Heitman-USA TODAY Sports /
  1. Over the first two games of this season, Chicago Bears tight end Zach Miller averaged 4.5 targets, 3.5 receptions, 23.5 yards per game and had no receiving touchdowns.
  2. In Sunday night’s loss to Dallas, Miller caught eight passes on nine targets for 78 yards and two receiving touchdowns.
  3. This Sunday, the Bears play the Detroit Lions at home. Currently, the Lions rank as the worst team against opposing tight ends, allowing a robust 17.7 fantasy points per game.
  4. For weeks 13 to 16 of this season, the Bears have a very favorable schedule.  They play three home games against San Francisco, Green Bay, and Washington. Also, the average fantasy points allowed to tight ends during these four games is 11.2 fantasy in standard leagues.
  5. After Week 11, Miller will not face a defense ranked in the top ten against opposing fantasy tight ends.

    Prediction:  Whether it’s through a trade or simply from the waiver wire, acquire Zach Miller as your fantasy football tight end. His friendly fantasy schedule and rare Week 15 and 16 home games will lead many owners to a fantasy championship.

  1. Through the first two games of the season, Tampa Bay Buccaneers tight end Cameron Brate averaged 3.5 targets, three receptions, and 23 yards per game.
  2. Last week, fellow tight end Austin Seferian-Jenkins was waived by the Buccaneers following his second arrest for DUI.
  3. In the first game without Seferian-Jenkins, Brate was targeted a career high 10 times. He caught five passes for 46 yards and two touchdowns.
  4. From that performance alone, Brate jumped to the ninth fantasy tight end this season. He has 21 total fantasy points, and trails the top tight end (Greg Olsen) by just 10 total fantasy points.
  5. This week Brate faces a tough test against a great Denver Broncos defense. However, after this week, his schedule is incredibly friendly to the tight end position.  In Week Five, he faces the Carolina Panthers who rank 24th in fantasy points allowed to opposing tight ends. Following a bye week, Brate faces the teams that rank 29th, 25th and 31st in that category. Two of those games are home.
  6. In the critical fantasy weeks (13-16), Brate will face the teams that ranks 28th and 30th defending opposing fantasy tight ends.  In between?  They face the Saints at home who are currently giving up 448.3 yards per game (31st in the NFL).

Prediction:  Pickup Cameron Brate before the other fantasy owners realize what happened. No longer competing with the athletic Seferian-Jenkins, Brate will be a TE1 (top 12) for the rest of the fantasy season.