50 Shades of Fantasy Football, Vol. VII: Buyin’ on the Bye

Sep 25, 2016; Philadelphia, PA, USA; Philadelphia Eagles running back Wendell Smallwood (28) is tackled near the goal line by Pittsburgh Steelers cornerback William Gay (22) and cornerback Artie Burns (25) during the third quarter at Lincoln Financial Field. Mandatory Credit: Bill Streicher-USA TODAY Sports
Sep 25, 2016; Philadelphia, PA, USA; Philadelphia Eagles running back Wendell Smallwood (28) is tackled near the goal line by Pittsburgh Steelers cornerback William Gay (22) and cornerback Artie Burns (25) during the third quarter at Lincoln Financial Field. Mandatory Credit: Bill Streicher-USA TODAY Sports /
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Sep 26, 2016; New Orleans, LA, USA; New Orleans Saints running back Mark Ingram (22) scores a touchdown past Atlanta Falcons linebacker LaRoy Reynolds (53) during the fourth quarter of a game at the Mercedes-Benz Superdome. The Falcons defeated the Saints 45-32. Mandatory Credit: Derick E. Hingle-USA TODAY Sports
Sep 26, 2016; New Orleans, LA, USA; New Orleans Saints running back Mark Ingram (22) scores a touchdown past Atlanta Falcons linebacker LaRoy Reynolds (53) during the fourth quarter of a game at the Mercedes-Benz Superdome. The Falcons defeated the Saints 45-32. Mandatory Credit: Derick E. Hingle-USA TODAY Sports /
  1.  New Orleans Saints running back Mark Ingram had 11 total fantasy points in his first two games.
  2. As we predicted last week, the Saints offense had a huge game on Monday night, in which Ingram had 18 fantasy points in standard scoring leagues against Atlanta.
  3. Before getting injured in Week 12 last season, Ingram was the third best fantasy football running back in the entire league.
  4. Ingram finished with 50 receptions, which ranked him eighth among all running backs. This was despite only playing 11 full games.
  5. Ingram has 10 receptions through three games. He is well on his pace for more than the 50 receptions from last season.
  6. After this week’s game at San Diego, the Saints have their bye week. When they return, Ingram will have seven consecutive games against teams that rank outside the top 12 in fantasy points allowed to running backs.
  7. Ingram is still one of the few remaining RB1s that receive all the goal line carries.


Prediction:  After a slow start to the season, Ingram’s performance last week is an indicator of the rest of season. Make a trade for Ingram as the starting running back in an explosive Saints attack, and enjoy the RB1 production that follows. 

  

Sep 1, 2016; East Rutherford, NJ, USA; New England Patriots quarterback Tom Brady (12) throws a pass during the first half of their game against the New York Giants at MetLife Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Ed Mulholland-USA TODAY Sports
Sep 1, 2016; East Rutherford, NJ, USA; New England Patriots quarterback Tom Brady (12) throws a pass during the first half of their game against the New York Giants at MetLife Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Ed Mulholland-USA TODAY Sports /

44.  Through the first 12 games of 2015, New England Patriots quarterback Tom Brady was averaging 29.6 fantasy points per game.  That made him the number one fantasy football quarterback, more than two points per game higher than Cam Newton (27.4 ppg) over that span.

45. Over each of the past two seasons, Brady’s fantasy production has declined during the last four weeks of the season.  In 2014, he averaged 15.5 fantasy points over the last four games. In 2015, he averaged 15.8 fantasy points per game over that same span. One of the reasons for this decline is Brady’s age (currently 39 years old), and the grind of playing a full 16 game schedule.

46.  This season, Brady was suspended by the NFL for the first four games of the season. His first game will be next week in Cleveland.

47.  Over his career, running back James White has played in 15 games with Brady, and three games without Brady. White is averaging 0.67 more receptions, and 11.54 more receiving yards per game with Brady. This translates to 3.1 more fantasy points in standard scoring leagues, and 3.34 more points in PPR leagues.

48. Patriots running back Dion Lewis has played in seven games with Tom Brady, and 14 games without Tom Brady.  Lewis is averaging 6.93 more targets, 4.93 more receptions, and 53.9 more receiving yards per game. This translates to 10.08 more fantasy points in standard scoring leagues, and 15.02 more points in PPR leagues.

49.  Lewis is eligible to return from injured reserve in Week 7.

50.  Over Tom Brady’s 16 year career, the Patriots have played 17 games without him as starting quarterback. In those games they are averaging 35.9 less passing yards, 0.7 less passing touchdowns, and 3.3 less points per game.


Prediction:  Fantasy Football owners have forgotten the impact Brady will have upon his return. The biggest positional boost in fantasy production will come at running back. Once Brady returns in Week Five, both James White and Dion Lewis will be viable starting running backs in any format.