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AL Wild Card 2016: 5 reasons Orioles will win

By Joshua Sadlock

Sep 7, 2016; St. Petersburg, FL, USA; Baltimore Orioles manager Buck Showalter (26) looks on during the first inning against the Tampa Bay Rays at Tropicana Field. Mandatory Credit: Kim Klement-USA TODAY Sports
Sep 7, 2016; St. Petersburg, FL, USA; Baltimore Orioles manager Buck Showalter (26) looks on during the first inning against the Tampa Bay Rays at Tropicana Field. Mandatory Credit: Kim Klement-USA TODAY Sports /
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Sep 30, 2016; Bronx, NY, USA; Baltimore Orioles right fielder Mark Trumbo (45) hits a 2-run home run during the fifth inning against the New York Yankees at Yankee Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Adam Hunger-USA TODAY Sports
Sep 30, 2016; Bronx, NY, USA; Baltimore Orioles right fielder Mark Trumbo (45) hits a 2-run home run during the fifth inning against the New York Yankees at Yankee Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Adam Hunger-USA TODAY Sports /

4. Mark Trumbo is heating up

The Orioles got 47 Trumbombs this season, giving them the AL leader in home runs for the fourth consecutive season. Trumbo hit a home run every 12.4 at-bats in the first half of the season before dropping off slightly and hitting one out every 15.4 at-bats after the break. That minor dip in homer frequency wasn’t the problem, however.

Trumbo hit a remarkable .288/.341/.582 in the first half, but slid all the way down to .214/.284/.470 in the second half. If he wasn’t homering, Trumbo was likely striking out or popping out weakly. Still, Showalter stuck with Trumbo in the middle of his batting order.

Flipping the script on his second-half slide, the right fielder/DH slashed .272/..330/.544 over the final month of the season, his best month since July. Over the final six games of the season, crucial, must-win games, he hit .440 with two home runs.

The Orioles need one more big game out of Mark Trumbo, and he appears to be locked in yet again. The big slugger’s best month of the season came in April, when he appeared to be more focused on making line-drive contact rather than hitting home runs. His first nine hits of the season were all singles.

Trumbo is one of the league’s biggest embracers of advanced metrics when it comes to hitting, and he is well-versed in launch angle and exit velocity. He generates some of the best backspin, and almost all of his home runs are no-doubters. There is some downside to that type of swing, but when Trumbo is seeing the ball well as he is now, he is a threat to go deep every single time up.

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