AL Wild Card 2016: 5 reasons Orioles will win

2. The starting rotation is pitching lights-out baseball

Guess which team had the best ERA in all of baseball in September. Would you have guessed the Baltimore Orioles? Probably not.

Somehow, someway, the Orioles’ rotation came up big in the final month of the season when it mattered most. The full season numbers are still abysmal, and the staff ranks 24th in the league with a 4.72 ERA. In September, however, the starting rotation posted a very respectable 3.79 ERA and won 13 decisions. It was the first month of the season in which the starting rotation posted an ERA under 4.50.

Buck Showalter has yet to name his starting pitcher for Tuesday’s game, but his options are Ubaldo Jimenez and Chris Tillman. Jimenez was once left for dead after pitching to an ERA over 7.00 for much of the season. With his mechanics harnessed, the much-maligned starter has been nearly unhittable over his past seven starts with a 2.45 ERA and only 13 walks allowed in 47.2 innings pitched. Jimenez pitched a gem last time out against Toronto, allowing but one hit in 6.2 innings of work.

Chris Tillman, who started for the O’s on Opening Day, has also pitched well of late after battling a sore shoulder. He has allowed three runs or fewer in six of his past seven starts, and also conquered some Rogers Centre demons last time out. Tillman kept the Orioles in the game last Wednesday by allowing two runs, one earned over 5.2 innings. He did allow nine baserunners.

Both Tillman and Jimenez have their flaws, but Jimenez has looked incredible of late. Tillman is the staff’s workhorse, but he does have an ugly 7.01 ERA in the Rogers Centre in his career. It’s hard to get a read for how much confidence Showalter has in Jimenez, though. Regardless, both have pitched well down the stretch when it mattered most.