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AL Wild Card 2016: 5 reasons Orioles will win

By Joshua Sadlock

Sep 7, 2016; St. Petersburg, FL, USA; Baltimore Orioles manager Buck Showalter (26) looks on during the first inning against the Tampa Bay Rays at Tropicana Field. Mandatory Credit: Kim Klement-USA TODAY Sports
Sep 7, 2016; St. Petersburg, FL, USA; Baltimore Orioles manager Buck Showalter (26) looks on during the first inning against the Tampa Bay Rays at Tropicana Field. Mandatory Credit: Kim Klement-USA TODAY Sports /
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Sep 28, 2016; Toronto, Ontario, CAN; Baltimore Orioles pinch hitter Hyun Soo Kim (25) hits a two run home run against Toronto Blue Jays in the ninth inning at Rogers Centre. Mandatory Credit: Dan Hamilton-USA TODAY Sports
Sep 28, 2016; Toronto, Ontario, CAN; Baltimore Orioles pinch hitter Hyun Soo Kim (25) hits a two run home run against Toronto Blue Jays in the ninth inning at Rogers Centre. Mandatory Credit: Dan Hamilton-USA TODAY Sports /

1. The Blue Jays limped to the finish

The Blue Jays were one of the popular picks to run away with the division, but they nearly missed the playoffs after struggling mightily in September. The Orioles played some of their best baseball to finish September with a 17-12 record. The Blue Jays went 13-16 in that time frame despite continuing to get solid pitching from their starters.

The Jays struggled to wrap up a playoff berth because their offense went cold and their bullpen self-destructed. Health has been an issue in Toronto this year, with Jose Bautista and Josh Donaldson missing significant time. Donaldson is nursing a sore hip and Bautista made two trips to the disabled list this season.

While Donaldson has continued to take the field nearly every day, he batted only .222 with three home runs and seven RBIs in September and October. His .389 slugging percentage would also indicate something is up. Bautista is in a contract year, but had his worst year as a Blue Jay. Last fall’s hero slashed only .234/.366/.452 with only 22 home runs.

As a team, Toronto slugged only .363 in September, the third-worst mark in the league. Michael Saunders and Russell Martin both hit below .200. Of the team’s big bats, only Edwin Encarnacion stepped up to the challenge.

Most importantly, the Blue Jays bullpen went belly-up down the stretch. Jason Grilli allowed nine earned runs in only 8.2 innings and gave up four big home runs. Rule 5 pick Joe Biagini also hit a wall, allowing nine runs in 11 innings. Typically reliable closer Roberto Osuna blew two saves, and gave up a crucial home run to Hyun Soo Kim of the Orioles. Set-up man Joaquin Benoit tore his calf while storming the field during a benches-clearing melee.

The Blue Jays also enter the Wild Card Game without their best starting pitchers available. Aaron Sanchez, J.A. Happ, and Marco Estrada have all dominated the Orioles, but all three pitched in the regular season’s final series. That leaves Francisco Liriano or Marcus Stroman to start against the Orioles. Liriano should be the choice by virtue of his 10-strikeout performance against the Orioles last week, but is prone to wildness. Stroman went 1-2 against the Orioles this season with a 7.04 ERA and allowed four home runs in four starts.

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