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50 Shades of Fantasy Football, Vol. VIII: Fightin’ for that inch

By Mike Randle

Oct 2, 2016; Santa Clara, CA, USA; San Francisco 49ers running back Carlos Hyde (28) celebrates after running in a touchdown during the second quarter against the Dallas Cowboys at Levi
Oct 2, 2016; Santa Clara, CA, USA; San Francisco 49ers running back Carlos Hyde (28) celebrates after running in a touchdown during the second quarter against the Dallas Cowboys at Levi /
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Oct 2, 2016; Tampa, FL, USA; Tampa Bay Buccaneers quarterback Jameis Winston (3) talks with head coach Dirk Koetter against the Denver Broncos during the first half at Raymond James Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Kim Klement-USA TODAY Sports
Oct 2, 2016; Tampa, FL, USA; Tampa Bay Buccaneers quarterback Jameis Winston (3) talks with head coach Dirk Koetter against the Denver Broncos during the first half at Raymond James Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Kim Klement-USA TODAY Sports /
  1. The Tampa Bay Buccaneers are finishing the most difficult opening five game schedule in the NFL. They have faced the 4-0 Broncos, the 3-1 Falcons and Rams, and played at Arizona. They continue this gauntlet at Carolina on Monday Night Football.
  2. Tampa Bay running back Doug Martin was second in NFL in rushing yards in 2015 with 1,402 yards. He averaged 4.9 yards per carry which was best among all running backs with at least 150 carries.
  3. This season Martin only has 85 yards on 25 carries, which is a 3.4 average. His backfield mate Charles Sims, only has 116 yards on 41 carries for a 2.8 average. Martin is out with a hamstring injury, and Sims’ status is unknown after his injury last week.
  4. Buccaneers quarterback Jameis Winston is currently 10th in fantasy points per game at 19.1 ppg. He is third in Air Yards (735.5 per game), and fifth in passing touchdowns with eight.
  5. Winston is also first in pass attempts per game (44.8), and Deep Ball Attempts (6.8 passes per game over 20 yards downfield).
  6. However, Winston also ranks second in interceptions (eight), and is last among all starting quarterbacks in completion percentage (57.5 percent).
  7. The Buccaneers rest of season schedule is third easiest for fantasy quarterbacks.
  8. Tampa Bay plays New Orleans in both Week 14 (home) and Week 16 (away). The Saints are currently allowing 422.8 yards per game, placing them 31st in the league in total defense.
  9. Tampa Bay wide receiver Mike Evans is currently fifth among all wide receivers with 54 fantasy points in standard scoring leagues.
  10. Evans ranks first overall in targets (50), Air Yards (322 ypg), and is tied for fourth in receptions (26).
  11. Evans rest of season schedule only has two teams ranked inside the top 12 in fantasy points allowed to wide receivers. Both of those games (Chicago and Seattle) will be in Tampa Bay.
  12. Over that time, Evans will go against the 23rd (Atlanta), 25th (Kansas City), 27th (New Orleans-twice), and 31st (Oakland) ranked defenses in fantasy points allowed to wide receivers.

Next: 2016 NFL season: Record predictions for all 32 teams

Prediction:  Despite a big game from Winston, the Buccaneers lose at Carolina this week to drop to 1-4 on the season. After their Week Six bye, the Buccaneers offense kicks into high gear thanks to a very favorable schedule. Winston, Martin, and Evans are all top 10 fantasy players at their position for the remainder of the season.  

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