Pacquiao vs Vargas: 5 keys to victory for Jessie Vargas

4) Avoid a dramatic drop in punch output

An analysis of CompuBox statistics ahead of Jessie Vargas’ last bout against Sadam Ali reveals a fighter who boxes to the welterweight mean. Vargas averages 57.3 punches per round and 18.4 connects; the division averages are 57.6 and 17.8, respectively. Vargas also throws 22.2 jabs (landing 5.5) compared to 24.1 and 5.1 for typical 147-pounders.

In terms of power punches, Vargas’ typical output is 12.9 of 35.1 for his hooks, crosses and uppercuts, while the standard welterweight averages 12.7 of 33.5 per round. But why do these numbers matter?

They matter in direct relation to how much they will drop against Manny Pacquiao because, make no mistake, Vargas will not meet or exceed his typical punch output — and this is natural. He’s in by the far the biggest fight of his career against a generational talent, so he’ll likely ease his way into the bout behind a cagey start in order to find firm footing. But what Jessie Vargas cannot do it let Pacquiao handcuff him.

Consider the total number of punches Timothy Bradley Jr. threw against Manny Pacquiao over three 12-round fights (in order): 839, 609 and 302. In the third fight, Pacquiao scored two knockdowns and Bradley appeared devoid of ideas. If Jessie Vargas finds himself averaging a per-round output of 40-45 total punches — or, god forbid, something in the mid-30s range — he stands no chance.

Vargas’ opponents have also been able to land 38.3 percent of their power punches against him, which is slightly alarming with Pacquiao looming. Indeed, throwing more punches leaves one vulnerable, but against Pacquiao, retreating with a passive high guard can be worse.