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Heisman Trophy 2016: Predicting each candidate’s NFL future

By John Buhler

Oct 29, 2016; East Lansing, MI, USA; Michigan Wolverines linebacker Jabrill Peppers (5) walks off the field after a game against the Michigan State Spartans at Spartan Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Mike Carter-USA TODAY Sports
Oct 29, 2016; East Lansing, MI, USA; Michigan Wolverines linebacker Jabrill Peppers (5) walks off the field after a game against the Michigan State Spartans at Spartan Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Mike Carter-USA TODAY Sports /
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Oct 22, 2016; Lubbock, TX, USA; Oklahoma Sooners quarterback Baker Mayfield (6) leaves the field after the game with the Texas Tech Red Raiders at Jones AT&T Stadium. Oklahoma defeated Texas Tech 66-59. Mandatory Credit: Michael C. Johnson-USA TODAY Sports
Oct 22, 2016; Lubbock, TX, USA; Oklahoma Sooners quarterback Baker Mayfield (6) leaves the field after the game with the Texas Tech Red Raiders at Jones AT&T Stadium. Oklahoma defeated Texas Tech 66-59. Mandatory Credit: Michael C. Johnson-USA TODAY Sports /

Mayfield keeps getting better as a passer for the Sooners, as he has been sensational during his two years in Norman. Mayfield has been granted an extra year of collegiate eligibility by the NCAA after transferring from Texas Tech to Oklahoma in 2014, having to sit out that season. He will play his redshirt senior season in 2017.

In all fairness, of the five Heisman finalists, Mayfield has the most definite NFL ceiling. He’s not very big and he plays in an Air Raid offense for Lincoln Riley. For Mayfield to succeed in the NFL beginning in 2018, he’ll have to be taken by the right team in the right situation.

Mayfield is tough and has this certain gritty “it” quality about him that makes him one of the most competitive players in the college game today. He doesn’t hold anything back, as he will step on an opponent’s throat and finish them off. A few NFL general managers will consider taking a chance on him in 2018 because of the level of passion he plays with for Oklahoma.

Mayfield is not afraid of letting it rip vertically in the passing game. His 11.1 yards per attempt in 2016 shows that he has the courage and the confidence to make the big time throws. However, does he have better than average NFL arm strength? Can he get by with the inherent limitations of his right arm?

Smaller quarterbacks with limited arm strength have succeeded in the NFL. His reach prototype is New Orleans Saints quarterback Drew Brees, but his is probably more likely to be a Chad Pennington of New York Jets and Miami Dolphins fame. Brees was able to overcome early rotator cuff concerns, and once Pennington lost a little zip on his fastball, that was it for him as an NFL quarterback.

Mayfield needs to play in a dome and preferably in a southern city to have success as an NFL quarterback. He won’t be a franchise quarterback coming out of Oklahoma, but he seems to have the mental makeup to challenge for a starting job in a less-than-desirable quarterback situation.

Besides arm strength and stature (6’1″, 210 pounds.), the Air Raid and perceived lack of NFL mobility will make him a late-round pick in the 2018 NFL Draft. Mayfield can succeed in the NFL, but he has a razor-thin margin for error on a very steep learning curve.

Ceiling: Drew Brees
Median: Chad Pennington
Floor: Aaron Murray

2018 NFL Draft prospects: Day three, fourth-to-seventh round

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