Who will be the NBA’s Most Improved player this season?
In recent years, players who have snagged this honor — C.J. McCollum, Goran Dragic, Jimmy Butler, Paul George and Kevin Love to name a few — have gone on to become pillars of the current teams. Although there are numerous candidates for the league’s “breakout” award each and every season, The Step Back staff detailed four main options and picked their choice as well.
The basketball world mocked the Dallas Mavericks in unison for signing Harrison Barnes to a max deal this summer. Now he’s been better than advertised. What’s been the key?
Chris Manning (@cwmwrites): I think some of Barnes’ issues stemmed from behind the worst player on the Warriors’ best lineup last year. Is he a perfect player or a No. 1 option on a great team? No, but Barnes does have some skill, and he’s the classic example of a player who is at certain level of skill and succeeds in a bigger role. It helps, too, that Rick Carlisle is one of the league’s smartest and best coaches and has put Barnes in spots to succeed all year. If anyone was going to maximize Barnes in a role he probably isn’t built for, it’s him.
Senthil Natarajan (@SENTH1S): Perhaps it was a case of overcorrection from fan perspectives? Yeah, Harrison Barnes wasn’t great, but we went from fawning over his potential one year to condemning him the next. And the truth, as it often is, was probably that he is somewhere in the middle of those two extremes. I’m still not entirely convinced that this version of Barnes is worth his max contract, but it’s a credit to Barnes’ mental fortitude that he didn’t allow his struggles in the playoffs and the Olympics (and the ensuing fan reaction) to turn his career trajectory into a ‘Nick the Brick’ situation.
Rory Masterson (@rorymasterson): Context being vitally important, I’m not sure there is any single key so much as a confluence of the factors surrounding him. His career thus far is a tale of potential only partially realized and talent only partially utilized due to the embarrassment of riches surrounding him. Seventh overall pick in 2012 (32 picks ahead of Draymond Green), All-Rookie First Teamer in 2013, the least essential member of one of the best all-around outfits in league history, noticeably not Kevin Durant: still only 24, these things combined to essentially doom him in Golden State. Absent three All-Stars in Dallas, as well as franchise cornerstone Dirk Nowitzki for much of the season, Barnes has been able to blossom. His usage rate has exploded, contributing to some of his traditional stat increases, but his efficiency has largely remained. As we all remember from 2011, Rick Carlisle knows how to get the most out of his players; in Barnes, he has a willing and capable two-way wing, inflated contracts be damned.
Scott Rafferty (@crabdribbles): I think confidence has a lot to do with it. As Chris mentioned, Barnes was basically the worst player in the Warriors’ best lineup (which, by the way, was still pretty good) and is now on a team that desperately needs his scoring. Just something as simple as knowing he’s going to get the ball in certain spots X amount of times per game as opposed to being used strictly as a spot-up shooter who doesn’t get many opportunities makes a difference for a player of his caliber. Also, Rick Carlisle using him as a Dirk Nowitzki clone is perfect for his skill set.
Bryan Toporek (@btoporek): As others have already mentioned, could it be as simple as him moving up the offensive totem pole? In Golden State, even when Stephen Curry or Klay Thompson were catching a breath on the bench, Barnes seemingly had trouble flipping the proverbial switch between complementary option and primary scorer. In Dallas, he’s been pigeonholed into the latter role, particularly thanks to Dirk Nowitzki’s early-season Achilles issues. It’s not strictly attributable to that — after all, his per-36-minute and per-100-possession numbers have also skyrocketed — but Barnes is handling his increase in responsibilities with aplomb, much to his credit. That said, I don’t know that we would have ever seen this version of Barnes had he stayed in Golden State.
Peter Nygaard (@RetepAdam): In a way, it’s almost amusing that expectations were as off as they were for Barnes, considering he may be the most he-is-exactly-who-he-is player in the entire league. I think what a lot of people failed to consider is simply what Dallas needed out of this arrangement. Dirk’s NBA career is old enough to vote. Even when healthy, he’s just not going to be that guy anymore, and they don’t really have anyone else on the roster capable of eating possessions with any semblance of efficiency. Barnes was always somewhat miscast as a role player because he doesn’t have any one elite skill to hang his hat on. On the other end of the spectrum, he’s a bit overmatched as a go-to guy because he doesn’t really playmake, but you can lean on him the way Dallas needs to and come out no real worse for the wear. Ultimately, I’m not sure he’ll ever really be worth the money Dallas is giving him, but considering the embarrassing meme potential of that handcuff-contract picture, the Mavericks will probably be able to live with the outcome.
Giannis Antetokounmpo provides nightly highlights and has expanded his game beyond belief for a 22-year-old who was once so raw. How have the Bucks maximized his unique talents?
Manning: Quite simply, Jason Kidd has let experimented by letting Giannis actually be a point forward. Instead of spending money this summer to sign a traditional point guard to actually run the offense or forcing a bigger role onto Matthew Dellavedova, they’ve handed the keys to Giannis. Everything Milwaukee does runs through him and the unique abilities he possesses. They’ve let him grow into this role and it’s paid off.
Natarajan: By letting him do anything and everything he wants, on both ends of the court. The best way you let a talent like Giannis develop is by not placing artificial constraints on him, an approach that is easy to say, but harder to stick to in practice. The result? 7th highest Defensive Box Plus-Minus in the league. Of the six players in front of him, the person with the highest Offensive Box Plus-Minus is Draymond Green, at 1.9. Giannis though? 6.1 OBPM. The only high-minutes player with a greater two-way impact this season has been Russell Westbrook. The only thing more impressive than the season Giannis is currently having is the career trajectory that he is on and his meteoric pace of improvement.
Masterson: Can’t agree with the others more. By sticking to the plan and actually allowing Giannis to run the point, we are seeing a player who has never had this combination of skills and physical imposition while running an NBA offense. This could easily have looked like a gimmick at first, but Jason Kidd had enough confidence in both Giannis and himself, as well as the rest of the Bucks, to try something new, and he utilized the means at his disposal. Are the Bucks a great team? No, not yet, but they have the foundation of one, and it begins with their unparalleled, unprecedented point guard.
Rafferty: I hate to sound like a broken record, but it’s mainly been about opportunity this season. Antetokounmpo’s usage rating has improved significantly every season: 15.0 percent as a rookie, 19.6 percent as a sophomore, 22.3 percent last season and 28.6 percent this season. He turned himself into a walking triple-double when the Bucks make him their point guard in the second half of last season, so it’s not a huge surprise to see what he’s currently doing.
Toporek: By getting out of his damn way. Jason Kidd tinkered with using Antetokounmpo as his primary ball-handler following the All-Star break last year, and after seeing the promising results — he had six triple-doubles in 28 games while averaging 18.8 points, 8.6 rebounds, 7.2 assists, 1.9 blocks and 1.4 steals — the Bucks went all-in on the Point Giannis experiment this year. As unconventional as it is to rely on a 6-foot-11 22-year-old as your main floor general, Milwaukee’s willingness to embrace Antetokounmpo’s unique, wide-reaching skill set has helped him tap into this previously unthinkable level. Kidd recently told Sports Illustrated’s Lee Jenkins that he “wanted so badly” to be 6-foot-7 or 6-foot-8 during his playing days, as those extra few inches allow players to “make passes I could only dream about.” Living vicariously through the Greek Freak will have to do.
Nygaard: It almost sounds too obvious, but the Bucks have simply put him in a role that caters to his strengths and cloaks his weaknesses. Stashing Giannis in an off-ball role let defenses off the hook since he wasn’t going to burn them as a spot-up shooter, and kept the Bucks from being able to exploit the insane advantages his size and athleticism gives him as a playmaker. When Coach Kidd pulled the trigger on letting Antetokounmpo run the point full-time, it suddenly didn’t matter as much that he couldn’t really shoot. (Neither could the other guy anyway.) He’s too much of an athletic mismatch to sag off entirely because if you allow him to build up a head of steam, you’re dead. And the more he’s continued to transform his body and acclimate himself to facilitating Milwaukee’s offense, the less of a hope anyone has of containing him, which just opens up the floor even more for everyone else on the Bucks.
Otto Porter has quietly been stellar for the Wizards next to Wall and Beal. Is his improvement due to increased opportunities, or is there something more to it?
Manning: Statistically, Porter has improved for the fourth straight year. Each year, as he takes more shots and plays more minutes, he gets better. His shooting numbers are perhaps a bit too high to remain this good for a full year. But I think we are seeing Porter improve in important ways as he finds his role in the NBA. Interestingly enough, he’s doing it on the second lowest usage rate of his career – meaning he’s really maximizing every moment he has on the floor.
Natarajan: Most rookies are not good, especially right out of the gate — that’s a fact. Porter is a classic case of needing a few years to gradually but consistently turn himself into a really solid player, whether it be in terms of adjusting to the pace of the game, or developing his skillset. We often pay most of our attention to massive one year leaps, but incremental improvement like that of Otto Porter is equally worthy of our attention spans.
Masterson: It isn’t that he’s had increased opportunities, necessarily — like Chris said, his usage rate is actually down from last year, although it sits right around his career average — but rather that the opportunities themselves are better. Certainly, a healthy Bradley Beal contributes to that, and John Wall has been a monster thus far. He’s figured out how to get to better spots on the floor and cut down on inefficiencies. For example, the number of two-pointers he’s taken from ten feet or farther constitutes only about 30 percent of his total shot selection – in his rookie year, that number was over 45 percent. He’s a better rebounder and more attentive defender this year, and that can be contagious.
Rafferty: Porter is interesting because he didn’t really get the opportunity to spread his wings when he was first drafted like you’d normally expect from a No. 3 pick. He was always seen as someone who could compliment John Wall and Bradley Beal rather than being a franchise player down the road, which can be difficult for a young player to adjust to. It’s taken him some time, but he now seems to have settled into his role as a 3-and-D forward who knows how to make teams pay for loading up on Wall and Beal.
Toporek: Having followed Porter’s development during his two years at Georgetown, his ongoing progression comes as little surprise. He had a tendency to blend into the background for most of his freshman campaign with the Hoyas, although he began to assert his will offensively toward the end of the season. As a sophomore, though, an 18-point, 11-rebound, five-block, five-assist, three-steal outing against UCLA in the second game of the season was his official coming-out party. Though teams rarely use a third overall pick on a player whose best-case scenario is do-it-all No. 3 offensive option, that’s Porter’s ideal role. With John Wall and Bradley Beal balling out, Porter is free to fill in the gaps elsewhere.
Nygaard: Porter’s offensive efficiency has soared this season, and it’s largely been thanks to a significant uptick in shooting. As it turns out, improving at putting the basketball in the hoop from virtually every location on the court has a positive effect on a player’s performance, and Porter has done precisely that, upping both his 2-point and 3-point shooting percentages by nearly 70 points apiece. It’s possible that he remains due for a regression, but the fact that both his 3-point and free throw numbers have improved every season he’s been in the league, there’s reason to believe that at least some of it will stick. Beyond that, Porter just looks visibly more confident. He and Wall have finally found a comfort zone together, and the result has been a thing of beauty, with Wall looking for Porter along the perimeter more frequently and Porter making harder cuts, with the knowledge that his point guard will feed him if it’s there. It’s been a bumpy ride, but Porter’s finally emerging as the consummate third banana Washington envisioned when they drafted him third overall in 2013.
The Wolves are struggling this season after being a popular playoff pick during the summer. Andrew Wiggins keeps adding to his offensive versatility as well. What’s next for him to take the leap to elite?
Manning: The clearest path to superstardom for Wiggins would to be become a true lockdown defender. The potential and athleticism are there, but he hasn’t really become the best version of himself on that end. Creating more chaos by nabbing more steals, totally taking players out of games a la Kawhi Leonard or Jimmy Butler and/or being a more functional team defender can only help him. If he can progress on that end, and become closer to becoming a full-on two way player, then he may very well become elite.
Natarajan: Nate Duncan highlighted this really well on Twitter, but Wiggins is often out of position on defense, rarely gives even 75 percent effort to grab a rebound or box out, and doesn’t do simple things to contest shots like even jump at times. In fact, his Defensive Box Plus-Minus has actually decreased every year that he’s been in the league, while his offensive impact has only marginally increased, due to his poor passing acumen and difficulty grasping the subtler points of offense. Until he maximizes his athletic tools to put forth consistent effort on both ends, Wiggins won’t be able to break through the wall to realizing his potential.
Masterson: Improving upon his defense is the obvious answer here, because it’s the right one. Most of the time, it doesn’t appear as if he’s uncommitted to defending, a common complaint with players like Jahlil Okafor, but that he just doesn’t really know what to do. He’ll miss a switch or go under a screen when he should’ve gone over, get burned and end up inside his own head. That lack of confidence can translate to more mistakes. He has the length and athleticism to disrupt opposing possessions; not to go Uncle Drew on him, but it’s just a matter of committing to developing fundamental habits to the point of making them second nature. He’s got time.
Rafferty: Since his defense has already been touched on, I’ll go with his jump shot. Wiggins started the season on fire by making 42.2 percent of his 3-point attempts in the month of November. He then slipped to 28.3 percent in December and is at 16.7 percent through two games in January, according to ESPN. If he can get his 3-point shooting to a more consistent level, it’ll only make the lives of Karl-Anthony Towns and Zach LaVine easier.
Toporek: I’d echo the concerns about his defense and jump shot, but I’d also like to see him expand his well-roundedness on offense. Heading into the draft, his lackluster assist-to-turnover ratio during his lone season at Kansas was a major red flag, and through two-and-a-half years in the NBA, nothing has changed in that regard. (For his career, he’s averaging 2.1 assists to 2.2 turnovers per game.) Additionally, since the 2014-15 season, only three forwards have a lower total rebound percentage than Wiggins, according to Basketball-Reference — Terrence Ross, Lance Thomas and Joe Ingles. In theory, the presence of Karl-Anthony Towns and Zach LaVine should relieve some of Wiggins’ scoring burden and allow him to influence the game in other ways, but we haven’t seen much of that in practice just yet.
Nygaard: He has to be a playmaker. End of story. Wiggins is still only 21, and he’s already begun to realize his tantalizing potential as a scorer, but in order to become an elite offensive player, his impact has to transcend beyond isolated possessions. To touch back on Harrison Barnes in Dallas, Barnes has been scoring at pretty high volume with reasonably good efficiency and he turns the ball over less than any high usage (25 percent or more) player in the league, but he’s also dead last among high-usage non-centers in assist rate. If you aren’t a threat to dish the ball off to your teammates, then a player’s possessions will only ever be as efficient as he is able to make them through sheer scoring prowess alone. And even the best scorer’s shoulders are only so broad. Tom Thibodeau has been tinkering with running the offense through Wiggins more this season, and the results have been a mixed bag so far, which is okay because again, he’s still only 21. But if he’s ever going to become the elite offensive player many hoped he would be, that’s what it’s going to take for him to get there.
These are four candidates for the NBA’s Most Improved Player award, but if you had your choice as of now for that honor, who would you select and why?
Manning: It’s Giannis’ award to lose and it’s hard to see that changing. He’s arguably been the second best player in the East this year behind LeBron James, should make the All-Star team and is the main reason why the Bucks have a chance make some noise in the playoffs. What he’s doing is a level above everyone he’s competing against and the start of his full-on rise to stardom.
Natarajan: In many years, players like Otto Porter would be able to claim this award, but so far it’s really hard to see a credible case against Giannis lapping the field. He’s been everything we could have expected and more given his age. The ‘Greek Freak’ is already really close to fully actualizing his potential and is a surefire top-10 player in the league, with no signs of slowing down. He’s gone from a gangly player with immense athletic gifts and a sketchy jumper to an explosive two-way superstar capable of making both home and away fans gawk at the highlights he produces on a nightly basis, leaving his imprints on every single facet of the game. Are you not entertained?
Masterson: Last year, Steph Curry gained some steam for Most Improved despite winning the freaking Most Valuable Player Award the season previous and then following it up with a repeat! Giannis deserves MVP consideration, honestly, but because he won’t take that, he ought to win Most Improved.
Rafferty: It’s got to be Antetokounmpo. This is what the award is all about. Usually it goes to someone who performs slightly better in a bigger role, which Antetokounmpo has obviously done, but he’s also made noticeable improvements to his game each and every season. Now that he’s one of the top-10 players in the NBA, it’s time to recognize him for his incredible transformation.
Toporek: I’ll make it a sweep for the Greak Freek. Though he teased at this preposterous potential after last year’s All-Star break, Antetokounmpo is second only to Russell Westbrook in terms of player efficiency rating heading into Friday, per Basketball-Reference. No player in NBA history has ever averaged at least 20 points, nine rebounds, five assists, two blocks and more than 1.5 steals prior to this year. In just his fourth season, Antetokounmpo has taken the leap from budding stud to surefire All-Star and franchise cornerstone. Porter, Barnes and others (such as Indiana’s Myles Turner) are having excellent seasons in their own right, but none hold a candle to Point Giannis.
Nygaard: I’m always ambivalent about giving Most Improved to a player who is otherwise in consideration for greater hardware, since I feel like that goes against the spirit of the award, so I’ll use this space to give some shout-outs to guys who have taken their game to another level so far this season. Porter, as mentioned above, looks like a completely different player in Washington. Julius Randle and Jabari Parker both saw their respective careers take a detour early on but have bounced back strong this year and begun justifying all the hype. Lucas Nogueira, seemingly a forgotten man in Toronto, has emerged as a limited-minutes stud on defense for the Raptors. And Jon Leuer, of all people, has come out swinging in Detroit, playing out of his mind to earn a spot in the Pistons’ starting lineup. But let’s be real here. It’s Giannis. There’s no other possible answer.