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Big Ten basketball bubble watch: Who is in and who is out?

By Rees Woodcock

Nov 23, 2016; University Park, PA, USA; General view of the Big Ten logo at the Bryce Jordan Center prior to the game between the Colgate Raiders and the Penn State Nittany Lions. Penn State defeated Colgate 72-59. Mandatory Credit: Rich Barnes-USA TODAY Sports
Nov 23, 2016; University Park, PA, USA; General view of the Big Ten logo at the Bryce Jordan Center prior to the game between the Colgate Raiders and the Penn State Nittany Lions. Penn State defeated Colgate 72-59. Mandatory Credit: Rich Barnes-USA TODAY Sports /
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Big Ten
Dec 30, 2016; East Lansing, MI, USA; Northwestern Wildcats head coach Chris Collins and Michigan State Spartans head coach Tom Izzo talk prior to a game at Jack Breslin Student Events Center. Mandatory Credit: Mike Carter-USA TODAY Sports /

The Northwestern Wildcats are on the verge of their first NCAA Tournament appearance in the history of the program. They need to finish the season out strong to be able to make the postseason, and I think they can manage to do that. ESPN has them sitting as the No. 7 seed right now in the latest bracketology.

The rest of the season could go two ways for the Wildcats. They are in the tournament if it ended today, but I think things could go off the rails depending on how the season ends. Northwestern has three RPI top 50 victories but they only have two more top 50 games left. I see their ceiling being a No. 6 seed in the tournament and the floor being the NIT. They will need to win at least three out of their last six to get in.

It is weird talking about Michigan State and the bubble but this year seems to be one of those random challenging times for the Spartans. I think they will make it into the tournament based on their history and having Tom Izzo as the head coach. They are currently a No. 10 seed and one of the ‘last four byes’ teams for ESPN’s Joe Lunardi.

Michigan State’s season has been up and down this year. They started 12-9 but have recovered nicely and are currently 16-10 overall and 8-5 in Big Ten play. I see the Spartans being able to jump up the bracket pretty quick depending on the rest of the season. They only have five games remaining but three of those are against ranked teams. I see the ceiling for Michigan State being a No. 6 seed and the floor being the NIT. They still have a lot of work left to do.

When Minnesota started the season 15-2 I thought there was no way they were missing the NCAA Tournament. But that is when this team hit a five-game losing streak. They have since recovered and are now 18-7 overall and 6-6 in Big Ten play. The Golden Gophers are projected as a No. 8 seed right now.

Minnesota has had a decent season so far with four RPI top 50 victories. They still have two more top 50 games left and they also play two ranked teams as well. If they can win four of their next six games and finish with at least 22 wins I think they get in. I don’t see this team moving up too high in the seeding, though. I would say the ceiling is a No. 7 seed and the floor is the NIT Tournament.

I didn’t think I would be saying Michigan is a NCAA Tournament possibility at the beginning of the season but they are in the thick of things. This team is 16-9 overall and 6-6 in the Big Ten. They still have some work left to do but right now ESPN has them as a No. 11 seed and one of the ‘last four byes.’

Michigan really doesn’t have an impressive resume. They have only beaten two RPI top 50 teams, but there is room for improvement. The Wolverines have six games remaining and two are against ranked opponents and four are against RPI top 50 teams. Michigan is the true definition of a bubble team. I see their ceiling as a No. 9 seed and the floor being the NIT.

The Indiana Hoosiers are the only team that is below No. 7 in the Big Ten that I think has a chance at making the NCAA Tournament still.  This team has been a roller coaster this season with a loss to IPFW but big wins over No. 3 Kansas and No. 3 North Carolina.  Right now the Hoosiers sit at 15-11 overall and 5-8 in the Big Ten.  ESPN has them as one of the ‘first four out’ teams.

I think this Indiana team needs to win four of their last five games plus another one in the Big Ten Tournament to go dancing.  This team has the quality wins, but they have lost a lot lately.  Injuries have plagued this team this year, though.  I see their ceiling being a No. 9 seed in the tournament and their flooring being the NIT.