NBA Trade Deadline portfolio: Nerlens Noel
Heading into the 2016-17 NBA season, Philadelphia 76ers big man Nerlens Noel voiced his frustration with team president Bryan Colangelo for keeping all three of him, Joel Embiid and Jahlil Okafor on the roster. Whether he stays in Philly past the Feb. 23 trade deadline depends in large part on the fate of the other two.
“I think it’s just silly…this situation that we are in now with three starting centers,” Noel told Keith Pompey of the Philadelphia Inquirer on the eve of media day in September. “With the departure of [former general manager] Sam Hinkie, I would have figured that management would be able to get something done this summer.”
After playing only eight minutes in a loss against the Los Angeles Lakers on Dec. 16, Noel again vented (in NSFW terms) when speaking with reporters in the locker room, saying, “I need to be on the court playing basketball. I think I’m too good to be playing eight minutes. That’s crazy. That’s crazy. [They] need to figure this shit out.”
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It appears as though Noel may soon get his wish.
Following the Sixers’ 117-109 victory over the Miami Heat on Saturday night, head coach Brett Brown told reporters he held Okafor out due to ongoing trade discussions. ESPN.com’s Marc Stein reported “trade talks ramped up Saturday to the point where the Sixers were moved to prevent Okafor from playing,” although he noted “no deal appeared imminent as of Saturday night.”
If Philadelphia does move Okafor prior to the trade deadline, it may decrease the probability of Noel also being shipped out of town. Embiid has missed 12 of the Sixers’ past 13 games with a bone bruise in his left knee, and as beat writer Derek Bodner reported Saturday, he’s also nursing a low-grade meniscus tear in that knee. Though the Sixers continue to label Embiid as day-to-day, “there is a good chance he will remain out through the All-Star break,” according to Bodner, who cited “a source with knowledge of the situation.”
With Embiid sidelined for the near future, the Sixers would go from overly crowded at the 5 to dangerously thin if they do trade Okafor. If they also flipped Noel, they’d only have second-year big man Richaun Holmes to man the middle until Embiid returned, which would force Brown to trot out either Ersan Ilyasova or Dario Saric as small-ball centers in limited spurts.
If the Sixers change course and opt to trade Noel rather than Okafor, they shouldn’t have much trouble finding suitors for him. Barring a drastic decline in the second half of the season, Noel is on pace to become one of only five players in NBA history to average at least 1.5 steals and 1.5 blocks across his first three seasons. His defensive counting stats have fallen off this year due to his lack of playing time, but he’s right in line with his career averages on a per-36-minute basis.
Encouragingly, Noel is showing signs of progress offensively, too. Whereas he shot 25.0 percent on shots between 16 feet and the three-point line during his first two seasons, he’s gone 10-of-20 from that range this year. His jump-shooting efficiency has likewise improved (albeit over a small sample size), going from 62-of-252 (24.6 percent) as a rookie to 16-of-38 (42.1 percent) this season. Noel is far removed from joining the “unicorn” club as a shot-blocking big man with three-point range, but the development of a consistent mid-range jump shot would make him more of a well-rounded threat heading into his mid-20s.
Noel is set to become a restricted free agent in July, so teams may be hesitant to offer Philadelphia much in return for him heading into the trade deadline. Then again, having Embiid on the roster makes it far more unpalatable for the Sixers to commit $15-plus million to a full-time backup center. As Denver just proved by trading Jusuf Nurkic and Memphis’ 2017 first-round pick for Mason Plumlee, there’s considerable value in acquiring a player’s matching rights.
If the Sixers do dangle Noel on the trade market, where might he land? As of last August, the Boston Celtics had a “high level of interest” in him, according to A. Sherrod Blakely of CSNNE.com. On the day of the 2016 NBA draft, ESPN.com’s Marc Stein reported Philadelphia offered Noel, Robert Covington and the Nos. 24 and 26 picks to Boston for its No. 3 overall selection, but the Celtics opted to stand pat and draft Jaylen Brown there instead. Considering the Celtics’ defensive woes this season — they’re just outside of the bottom third league-wide in defensive efficiency — Noel would make sense as a frontcourt complement to Al Horford.
After dealing for Nurkic, the Portland Trail Blazers may have less interest in Noel, but they’ve likewise been linked as a potential destination for him. On Nov. 30, Sam Amico of AmicoHoops.com reported Portland “recently held discussions” with Philadelphia about Noel. Meanwhile, prior to the Nurkic deal, HoopsHype’s Alex Kennedy mentioned the Blazers as a possible landing spot for Okafor. While a theoretical Okafor-Nurkic pairing doesn’t make much sense, a Noel-Nurkic duo could provide Portland with the violence at the rim it has lacked throughout the 2016-17 campaign.
With Okafor having not boarded the Sixers’ team plane for their game against the Charlotte Hornets last on Monday, per Pompey, it appears as though he’ll be the first domino to fall in Philadelphia heading into the trade deadline. Depending on what the Sixers receive in return for Okafor, Noel could be the next one out the door.
Unless otherwise noted, all stats via NBA.com or Basketball-Reference.com and are current through Sunday, Feb. 12.