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Lokomotiv Kuban vs. Zenit St. Petersburg – The Russian Derby

Game Times (All times Eastern): Feb. 28: 12:00PM; Mar. 3: 12:00PM; Mar 8: 12:00PM

Best Way to Follow: Loko Basket Replay, Kuban’s YouTube Channel generally posts games within 24 hours.

This matchup pairs the VTB League’s second and third-best teams, and two teams who have had inverse runs in the competition. Loko started slow, barely sneaking into the Top 16 with a 3-5 record as they fired coach Fotsis Katsikaris early on in the season. After hiring Sasa Obradovic to replace him, they hit a groove, winning six of their last eight contests and winning Group E in the Top 16. Zenit, meanwhile, struggled through Group G, needing point differential to help them advance over Rytas. This was despite looking very strong early on, as they won Group C with a 6-2 record.

This should be a fun contrast of styles, as Zenit runs an offense that’s heavy on threes, while Loko has emerged as a solid ground-and-pound team built on stout defense and post play. Kuban allowed just 70.7 points per game in the Top 16, the best mark in the league, and held Gran Canaria to their two lowest point totals of the competition in their two games, which could be a good indicator for how a similar Zenit offense will fair.

The two teams have only played once this season, a 68-62 win for Loko on Dec. 18th. The major takeaway was exactly that: Loko slowed the pace, pounded the ball to their bigs, and held Zenit to 33.8 percent shooting from the field. If they can replicate that, Zenit will have a hard time winning, as they don’t have the true size to deal with Kuban’s trio of Ian Vougioukas, Kevin Jones, and Vladimir Ivlev around the basket. This is a good test for Wizards draft-and-stash Aaron White and Magic draft-and-stash Janis Timma, as the two power forwards will need to address that size discrepancy on defense, and Kuban shut both down pretty easily with the mobile Jones and Andrey Zubkov. Given that transition to the four is Timma’s largest looming NBA question, this is the matchup to keep an eye on.

The X-factor, of course, will be former Net Sergey Karasev. Zenit’s best wing scorer and de facto lead guard wasn’t fully healthy in that December matchup, and he presents a problem at the point of attack for Loko. With Karasev’s ability to get to the rim off the dribble, Zenit might be able to force the defensive scrambles that make their style of play so deadly. With Timma and leading scorer Ryan Toolson spacing the floor, and the 6-foot-7 Karasev attacking, Zenit can counter the size problem by creating one of their own in the backcourt. Loko’s dealt with this well in the past, but not with a player of Karasev’s caliber.

Prediction: Lokomotiv in two. Barring nuclear three-point shooting from Timma or heroics from Karasev, Kuban is going to dictate pace and control the paint. It’s very difficult to win if you can’t counter one of those.