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College Basketball Bubble Watch: Week 17

By Nathaniel Reeves

Jan 14, 2017; Indianapolis, IN, USA; Xavier Musketeers head coach Chris Mack reacts during their game against Butler Bulldogs at Hinkle Fieldhouse. Mandatory Credit: Thomas J. Russo-USA TODAY Sports
Jan 14, 2017; Indianapolis, IN, USA; Xavier Musketeers head coach Chris Mack reacts during their game against Butler Bulldogs at Hinkle Fieldhouse. Mandatory Credit: Thomas J. Russo-USA TODAY Sports /
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With the college basketball regular season coming to a close, these five teams still have some work to do before securing an at-large bid in the NCAA Tournament.

The madness before the Big Dance is officially underway, with mid-major conference tournaments tipping off around the nation this week ahead of Selection Sunday on March 12.

While championship week is one of the most entertaining stretches of the college basketball season, it also puts a lot of pressure on teams right on the cut line for the NCAA Tournament. Most mid-majors need to win their respective tournaments to make the Big Dance, and a number of power conference schools have plenty of work to do over the next ten days.

With down seasons in three major conferences, the bubble is shaping up to be mediocre this year, giving a number of teams an unexpected shot at the NCAA Tournament. Several squads hovering around .500 in conference play still have a chance, while a few teams are making a late push out of nowhere to get in the running.

As the regular season comes to a close for every conference on Sunday, these five teams are among those who still aren’t locks for the NCAA Tournament.

Middle Tennessee State Blue Raiders 

The Blue Raiders will be the heavy favorite to win next week’s Conference USA Tournament, but are in the discussion for an at-large bid even if they drop a game.

One year after stunning Michigan State in arguably the greatest tournament upset ever, Middle Tennessee State is back and much improved. Following Sunday’s two-point road win over UAB, the Blue Raiders are now 25-4 overall and 15-1 in Conference USA play, pending Thursday night’s contest against lowly Florida International.

A Dec. 8 blowout of Vanderbilt is looking better as the Commodores make their own push towards an at-large bid, and victories over Ole Miss (on the road), UNC-Wilmington and Belmont are all solid. Bad losses to Tennessee State and UTEP somewhat offset those, so the Blue Raiders probably can’t afford to drop its regular season finale against Florida Atlantic or a tournament contest to any team outside of Louisiana Tech.

Middle Tennessee State’s No. 32 RPI is among the best of any team on the bubble, and Ken Pomeroy’s adjusted efficiency ratings place it in a solid 47th. The Blue Raiders’ overall profile should be worthy of a bid no matter what given all the middling teams in the discussion, but the committee hasn’t been kind to mid-majors with similar resumes in the past.

Sunday’s home matchup with the Owls is a must-win, and the Blue Raiders will likely need to get to the title game to have an at-large chance. If Middle Tennessee State does qualify for the tournament, it will be one of the more intriguing potential Cinderella teams.

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