Top 10 MLB bounceback candidates for 2017

2. Chris Archer

Your own personal views on advanced pitching metrics will determine just how bad you think Chris Archer was in 2016. The right-hander led all of baseball with 19 losses and saw his ERA rise from the low-3.00s to 4.02. On the other side of the coin, his strikeout rate stayed very high at 10.4 per nine, while his FIP was better than his record and ERA would indicate.

Archer’s dominant stuff obviously did not abandon him last year. He still throws a power fastball with outstanding life, wipe-out slider, and fading changeup. This arsenal is devastating against hitters from both sides of the plate, but he had a difficult time commanding it last year, especially in the first half. Before the break last year, Archer had walked 48 in only 110 innings while suffering 12 of his 19 losses and pitching to a 4.66 ERA.

As with any pitcher who relies heavily on a slider or changeup, Archer can be prone to giving up the home run. He gave up 30 last year, including 20 on the road in less than 100 innings. Even with the best stuff, a pitcher who does not locate will get hit hard, and Archer found that out at times last year.

Physically, Archer was fine last year, but his mechanics and pitch location were just off for long stretches of the season. He seemed to find his groove in the second half, however, pitching to a 3.25 ERA. Archer is still only 28, and if he can command his pitches like he did down the stretch last year, the Tampa Bay Rays will get a dominant return to form from their ace.