NCAA Tournament 2017: Which No. 1 seed likely reaches Final Four?

Midwest: Kansas Jayhawks 

Despite some clear flaws, Kansas put together an incredible resume in a tough conference and was playing better than anyone prior to a Big 12 quarterfinal loss against TCU without Josh Jackson. Still, the Jayhawks’ path is loaded with pitfalls, so a trip to the Final Four isn’t going to be east.

Kansas will face the winner of Miami and Michigan State in the second round, with both teams having more talent than a typical eight or nine seed. The Sweet 16 has two potential dangerous matchups, as No. 5 Iowa State beat Kansas at Phog Allen earlier this season, while Caleb Swanigan and Purdue could be a challenge for Kansas’ shorthanded frontcourt.

Louisville is the No. 2 seed in the Midwest and certainly has championship potential, although it hasn’t been in top form over the past couple of weeks. Dillon Brooks could also carry Oregon to the Elite Eight despite the brutal injury to Chris Boucher, while red-hot Michigan and Oklahoma State are lurking as dangerous lower seeds.

A matchup with either Miami’s No. 20 adjusted defense per KenPom or Tom Izzo is not something the Jayhawks should take lightly in the second round, but they likely have too much talent for either team. Iowa State would be a particularly tricky matchup in the Sweet 16 and is shooting over 42.3 percent from beyond the arc since the start of conference play, giving it a chance to pull the upset.

The physicality of the Louisville defense would be interesting to watch against Kansas’ dynamic offense in a potential Elite Eight showdown. Jackson’s ever-improving versatility and the brilliance of Frank Mason will certainly help matters, but this is not an easy path.

While the Jayhawks will be favored in every game and might not even have the toughest Elite Eight game, the tough potential matchups in the second and third round damage their overall Final Four hopes.

Final Four chances: 4/10