NCAA Tournament 2017: 5 dark horses that could go far

Middle Tennessee State Blue Raiders

The Blue Raiders clock in as another somewhat obvious choice. It’s hard to keep a low profile as a dark horse after pulling off an upset of a 2-seed from the 15-spot. But the Blue Raiders are back in the tournament this year, and they’re strong dark horse candidates for reasons more than just their team strength.

They do have plenty of that, though. They returned six players from last year’s Cinderella squad, and they’ve gotten much better in the interim. Led by Giddy Potts and Arkansas transfer Jacorey Williams, the Blue Raiders have put together a top-60 offense that does pretty much everything well, other than generate free throws. They take and make a lot of their shots from everywhere, never get blocked and don’t turn the ball over.

And with Reggie Upshaw returning to anchor the defense at the back, Middle Tennessee has achieved balance with a top-50 defense that ranks among the best in the country at rebounding, generating turnovers and forcing misses. The combination of good offense and defense has them as one of the top 50 teams in the country, per adjusted efficiency.

They’re an objectively strong squad; they hit 3s, they generate steals and they play at a slow pace. Even just on profile, they’re one of the stronger dark horse candidates. What pushes them over the top is the opportunity their bracket gives them to get to the Sweet 16. The Blue Raiders pulled the weakest 5-seed, per KenPom, in Minnesota. The Golden Gophers were one of the more baffling seeding decisions and land just 15 spots ahead of Middle Tennessee in the adjusted efficiency rankings. And should MTSU pull a typical 12-5 upset, the worst that can be waiting for them is Butler, the bracket’s 4-seed.

Butler built a strong tournament resume on the back of a number of strong wins, especially over the overall 1-seed, Villanova. But they were prone to baffling losses for much of the second half of the season. They dropped games to Georgetown, Creighton, Providence, Seton Hall and Xavier in the season’s last 10 games. Four of those five were as good, or worse, in adjusted efficiency than Middle Tennessee has been this year. And, clearly, losing five of 10 to close out the year is less than ideal.

It’s not the most daunting path for Kermit Davis’s crew. While there’s plenty of work to be done, Middle Tennessee has quality and a good draw on its side.