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NCAA Tournament 2017: 6 overrated/underrated teams

By Will Schreefer

Jan 11, 2017; Wichita, KS, USA; Wichita State Shockers guard Conner Frankamp (33) drives with the ball against the Loyola-Chicago Ramblers during the first half at Charles Koch Arena. Mandatory Credit: Peter G. Aiken-USA TODAY Sports
Jan 11, 2017; Wichita, KS, USA; Wichita State Shockers guard Conner Frankamp (33) drives with the ball against the Loyola-Chicago Ramblers during the first half at Charles Koch Arena. Mandatory Credit: Peter G. Aiken-USA TODAY Sports /
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Overrated: Maryland Terrapins

We’ll have to go back to the Big Ten theme for the first of the teams that were overrated by the Committee on Selection Sunday. And, honestly, could have just as easily done a second section on Minnesota’s baffling 5-seed. Did you know 8th-seeded Wisconsin swept them, had more conference wins, and made it deeper in the conference tournament? The Committee didn’t, either.

But for now, we’re on the Maryland Terrapins. The Terps ran out to a gaudy 20-2 record, with an 8-1 conference mark, through the first three months of the season. Melo Trimble was the guiding point guard for a young team — one that managed to be one of the best clutch teams in basketball — and win all the close ones early on in the season. The only problem with being consistently lucky for a long stretch is that it rarely stays that way. This is especially true for sports teams in close games;  too much of a team’s record in close games appears to be random, or luck-connected.

And the backsliding came home to roost during the team’s last two months. More or less right after that article published (sorry, Terps fans), Maryland proceeded to lose two straight close games. And while the losses in four of their last eight games weren’t exactly close, they pointed to a more realistic picture of a team that started 20-2. Advanced metrics never loved Maryland — even when they were winning, it was by very tight margins. While clearly a good team, the won/loss record has been consistently more impressive than their adjusted efficiency.

That’s likely what’s reflected in the committee’s seeding of Maryland. Despite an adjusted efficiency that ranks them as 45th in the country, the Committee decided to award them a 6th-seed. The gap between S-curve rank and adjusted efficiency rank is the biggest amongst the NCAA tournament field. While it does come down to winning the games, Maryland’s late season malaise shows that won/loss record isn’t always the best predictor of future results. Melo Trimble and his clutch (and lucky) teammates may just keep it rolling in March, but it’s tough to feel confident in them (unless you’re a fan).

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