NCAA Tournament 2017: 6 overrated/underrated teams

Overrated: Arizona Wildcats

That’s right — I’m calling the West’s ‘sleeper’ Final 4 pick overrated. To be fair, it’s KenPom — not me — who’s making this assessment. The Wildcats are currently ranked as the 20th best team in the country by adjusted efficiency, vs. an S-curve position of 6th — that 14-spot gap is among the largest in the field. But I don’t really disagree with the assessment.

Arizona has been a strong postseason contender for several seasons running, and Sean Miller has put together another excellent squad. But the team, quite simply, hasn’t been playing like one of the best 8 teams in the country since conference play started. Per KenPom’s conference-only numbers, Arizona had the Pac-12’s 3rd best offense, and 4th best defense. A mildly slumping Lauri Markkanen hasn’t helped the offense, but that’s troubling for the Pac-12’s highest seed.

Though they posted strong win-loss results, dropping just two games and winning the conference tournament, it was frankly mainly against competition that just isn’t all that good. Outside of UCLA and Oregon, the Pac-12 was just OK this year. And — spoiler — ‘Zona went just 1-2 against them in the regular season, in particular getting blown out by Oregon.

Though the Wildcats got their revenge in the conference tournament against both squads, they squeaked past an Oregon team in the final that was without Chris Boucher, one of the Ducks’ best players (now gone for the year with a knee injury). This team will remain a trendy pick for the Final 4, because they’re a solid squad with a decently easy path, and people love to hate on Gonzaga. But they’re not, from an adjusted efficiency standpoint, a typically strong 2-seed for the NCAA tournament – they rate closer to a 4- or 5-seed. Time will tell, but think hard about giving one side of your bracket to a team that’s objectively weaker than the squads Sean Miller couldn’t get past the Elite 8 in 2014 and 2015.