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NCAA Tournament 2017: Predicting the First Round upsets

By Charlie Maikis

BALTIMORE, MD - MARCH 07: Head coach Kevin Keatts of the North Carolina-Wilmington Seahawks reacts to a call during the Colonial Athletic Conference Championship college basketball game against the Hofstra Pride at Royal Farms Arena on March 7, 2016 in Baltimore, Maryland. The Seahawks won 80-73. (Photo by Mitchell Layton/Getty Images)
BALTIMORE, MD - MARCH 07: Head coach Kevin Keatts of the North Carolina-Wilmington Seahawks reacts to a call during the Colonial Athletic Conference Championship college basketball game against the Hofstra Pride at Royal Farms Arena on March 7, 2016 in Baltimore, Maryland. The Seahawks won 80-73. (Photo by Mitchell Layton/Getty Images) /
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NEW YORK, NY – MARCH 08: John Collins #20 of the Wake Forest Demon Deacons dribbles Seth Allen #4 and Zach LeDay #32 of the Virginia Tech Hokies during the second round of the ACC Basketball Tournament at the Barclays Center on March 8, 2017 in New York City. (Photo by Al Bello/Getty Images)
NEW YORK, NY – MARCH 08: John Collins #20 of the Wake Forest Demon Deacons dribbles Seth Allen #4 and Zach LeDay #32 of the Virginia Tech Hokies during the second round of the ACC Basketball Tournament at the Barclays Center on March 8, 2017 in New York City. (Photo by Al Bello/Getty Images) /

South Region

Upset 1: #12 Middle Tennessee State over #5 Minnesota

The 12 seeds are strong this year. Much like UNC-Wilmington, the Middle Tennessee State Blue Raiders are stronger than their status as a mid-major indicates. Ranked 48th by Kenpom, they only come in 15 spots behind Minnesota. Minnesota might be over seeded at #5, so MTSU gets an easier matchup here than they otherwise might have. The Blue Raiders have already won 30 games this season, and adding another one to the ledger is far from impossible.

One fascinating subplot to watch in this game is Minnesota’s blocked shots. Minnesota is one of the best in the nation at blocking shots, having the third-best block rate in the nation. One of my favorite things that Kenpom keeps track of for us is offensive block rate, or block rate against, or how often a team gets its shot blocked. Middle Tennessee ranks fifth in this category. So will one of the best teams at blocking shots in the nation be able to block one of the least blockable teams? Only time will tell. That probably won’t have a terribly big impact on who wins, but last March Middle Tennessee won as a 15-seed and ruined all the brackets. That gives them goodwill. They’ll pick up another upset win this year.

Upset 2: #11 Wake Forest over #6 Cincinnati

Let’s get this out of the way first: Wake Forest will beat Kansas State in the play-in game. That’s not really an upset as it should be a really evenly matched game, but the ACC is better than the Big 12. So Wake Forest wins. That is the beginning of the John Collins revenge tour. Cincinnati is a good team. They’re led by an excellent senior point guard in Troy Caupain and have a great front court presence with Kyle Washington. But Collins is going to be too much. Wake Forest has one of the best offenses in the country and it is run through Collins on the block.

Collins rarely gets significant help from his teammates, but he is easily capable of being a one-man show. He can score on anyone, averaging 18.9 points per game. The Bearcats allow the third-lowest field goal percentage at the rim, according to Hoop-Math, but they have yet to see a player the caliber of Collins. He’s a beast on the boards as well, ranking in the top 40 in the country in both offensive and defensive rebounding rates. In the AAC Championship game, Cincy lost to SMU by 15 and struggled to contain standout big Semi Ojeleye as he compiled a 143 offensive rating. Collins will put on a show as the Deacs advance past the first round.

Bonus Upset: #10 Wichita State over #7 Dayton

This isn’t an upset. Wichita State should be favored because they were horribly under seeded. Pick the Shockers. This is the easiest 10-7 “upset” you’ll ever get.

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