Fansided

5 reasons UNC won’t win the National Championship

By Will Schreefer

Dec 17, 2016; Las Vegas, NV, USA; North Carolina Tar Heels guard Joel Berry (2) dribbles during a game against the Kentucky Wildcats at T-Mobile Arena. Mandatory Credit: Stephen R. Sylvanie-USA TODAY Sports
Dec 17, 2016; Las Vegas, NV, USA; North Carolina Tar Heels guard Joel Berry (2) dribbles during a game against the Kentucky Wildcats at T-Mobile Arena. Mandatory Credit: Stephen R. Sylvanie-USA TODAY Sports /
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Mar 16, 2017; Greenville, SC, USA; North Carolina Tar Heels guard Joel Berry II (2) greets fans during practice for the first round of the 2017 NCAA Tournament at Bon Secours Wellness Arena. Mandatory Credit: Bob Donnan-USA TODAY Sports
Mar 16, 2017; Greenville, SC, USA; North Carolina Tar Heels guard Joel Berry II (2) greets fans during practice for the first round of the 2017 NCAA Tournament at Bon Secours Wellness Arena. Mandatory Credit: Bob Donnan-USA TODAY Sports /

4. The Tar Heels are better as a frontrunner

In a look I took at the most successful teams, relative to expectation, in the NCAA tournament in the last 15 years, the Tar Heels were among the best. Whenever the Tar Heels get a high seed, they rarely fail to justify it. In fact, in their nine tournament appearances with a No. 4 seed or higher within the last 15 years, they’ve justified their seed. This means — for a No. 1 seed or No. 2 seed – they made at least the Elite Eight, and at least the Sweet Sixteen for a No. 3 or No. 4. They’re remarkably consistent as the favorite, going 35-4 when going into a game with a higher efficiency margin, per KenPom’s pre-tournament ratings.

But they’re not so great as the ‘underdogs,’ or when they’re on even footing with a team. They’re just 1-6 as the underdog in the NCAA tournament since 2001-02, and they’ve lost their first game to a stronger squad in five of the last six tournaments.

This shouldn’t matter early in this tournament. North Carolina currently ranks as a top-3 team per KenPom, with just Gonzaga and North Carolina coming in higher. But, if seedings hold, they’ll play Kentucky in the Elite Eight for the right to go to the Final Four. Kentucky is just marginally behind them in efficiency margin, currently sitting in fourth. It’d be a difficult game to win, if it happens. And the No. 1 seeds on the other side of the bracket — Gonzaga and Villanova — have both been stronger than North Carolina this year. If the Tar Heels have to win three consecutive games as ‘underdogs,’ recent history suggests it might not happen.

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