Fansided

5 reasons UNC won’t win the National Championship

By Will Schreefer

Dec 17, 2016; Las Vegas, NV, USA; North Carolina Tar Heels guard Joel Berry (2) dribbles during a game against the Kentucky Wildcats at T-Mobile Arena. Mandatory Credit: Stephen R. Sylvanie-USA TODAY Sports
Dec 17, 2016; Las Vegas, NV, USA; North Carolina Tar Heels guard Joel Berry (2) dribbles during a game against the Kentucky Wildcats at T-Mobile Arena. Mandatory Credit: Stephen R. Sylvanie-USA TODAY Sports /
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Mar 16, 2017; Greenville, SC, USA; North Carolina Tar Heels huddles during practice for the first round of the 2017 NCAA Tournament at Bon Secours Wellness Arena. Mandatory Credit: Bob Donnan-USA TODAY Sports /

3. It’s tough to win championships with a defense like this

North Carolina has been more than adequate on defense this year. Currently ranked as the 25th-best defense in the country, they’re more than capable of getting stops and clamping down. But they clearly haven’t been great at it, and that hasn’t been a strong historical indicator of championship worthiness.

North Carolina currently holds the record for ‘worst’ defense to win the national title. In 2009, they started the tournament at 39th in adjusted defensive rating, before battling their way to 21st during the necessary six-game win streak for the title.

But that’s the rarity. Just four national champions of the last 15 started the tournament with a defense at 25th-or-worse in adjusted efficiency, and only nine of 86 top-4 seeds that had a defense outside the top-25 made the Final Four. That’s just 10 percent of all teams, while nearly 45 percent drop out in the first weekend.

Since North Carolina pairs its iffy defenses with an excellent offense, their chances aren’t so dire. Squads among the top-4 seeds with top 10 offenses and defenses at 25th or worse have two national championships, and seven Final Four appearances. But that’s still just good for 14 percent, in terms of Final Four appearances, for the 49 teams in this group.

The lack of a truly elite defense makes it more difficult — though obviously not impossible — for North Carolina to win a championship. They’ll have to buck recent history to be a favorite.

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