Fansided

Top 10 MLB team over/under bets in 2017

By Nicholas Ian Allen

Mar 1, 2017; Sarasota, FL, USA; Baltimore Orioles shortstop Manny Machado (13) at bat against the Boston Red Sox at Ed Smith Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Kim Klement-USA TODAY Sports
Mar 1, 2017; Sarasota, FL, USA; Baltimore Orioles shortstop Manny Machado (13) at bat against the Boston Red Sox at Ed Smith Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Kim Klement-USA TODAY Sports /
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St. Louis Cardinals

Current Bovada Win Total: 84.5

With apologies to the “best fans in baseball,” the St. Louis Cardinals are headed in the wrong direction. First of all, it’s impossible to ignore the 14-win difference between the 2015 Cardinals, who came out on top of one of the toughest division races in history with a 100-62 record, and last year’s 86-win squad that missed the postseason.

Secondly (though perhaps not in order of importance to fans), the Cardinals watched their archrivals, the Chicago Cubs, celebrate a historic World Series victory last fall. And, unfortunately for the Cardinals, the Cubs show no signs of slowing down any times soon. St. Louis also struggled despite playing in a division with the rebuilding Reds and Brewers (both of whom show signs of improving in 2017 and beyond) and an underachieving Pittsburgh Pirates squad that should also be better this year.

Third, the core of the roster is growing worryingly old. Though the Cardinals have a rich history of plucking young talent seemingly from thin air, they’ve also been able to rely on sturdy veterans like Yadier Molina and Adam Wainwright. While Molina is still one of the better catchers in baseball, his excellence behind the plate isn’t what it once was now that he’s in his mid-30s.

Wainwright is fresh off the most disappointing season of his career. The 35-year old posted a career worst 4.62 ERA and allowed more hits (220) and earned runs (102) than anyone in the National League. Matt Carpenter, Jhonny Peralta and new centerfielder Dexter Fowler are all also on the wrong side of 30.

Projections:

  • PECOTA: 78
  • Fangraphs: 84

Furthermore, Cardinals fans are well aware of Mike Mike Matheny’s shortcomings as a manager, including bullpen mismanagement and an old-school mentality that could cost the team wins. To be fair, the Cards were minus-4 in Base Runs last season, and underperformed their Pythagorean win-loss record by two games. We used those points to suggest why the Rays and Twins would be better in 2017, but it’s quite possible that Matheny is to blame rather than Lady Luck.

Of course, there are reasons to think the Cardinals can get back to the postseason, perhaps even the top of the AL Central. St. Louis led the NL with 225 home runs last season and ranked second in total bases. Only the Cubs and Rockies scored more runs.

And, even if Wainwright can’t regain his All-Star form, Carols Martinez, Mike Leake and Lance Lynn give the Cardinals a deep pitching staff capable of improving on its middle-of-the-road 4.08 ERA from last season. The starting rotation should be fine even without budding star Alex Reyes as he recovers from Tommy John surgery, and the bullpen was solid in 2016. Closer Seung Hwan Oh was a particularly pleasant surprise – tough he too will be 35 this summer.

Next: 10 MLB sleeper teams in 2017

However, the projections see a downturn in production, and there’s plenty of reason to expect the aging roster to regress offensively, defensively and on the mound. Given the signs we saw last year, it could get worse before it gets better.

The Cardinals have surprised us before, but 2017 could be the first losing season in St. Louis since 2007.

Prediction: Under 84.5 wins

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