Top 10 MLB team over/under bets in 2017
Minnesota Twins
Current Bovada Win Total: 74.5
To say the 2016 Minnesota Twins season was a disaster would be an understatement. After putting together a surprisingly competitive young squad in 2015, the Twins lost 24 more games with largely the same roster, falling to 59-103 – the worst record in Major League Baseball by a staggering nine games. What the hell happened?
First things first, like Tampa Bay, Minnesota suffered from some bad luck. In terms of Base Runs, the Twins lost 12 more games than expected, and their Pythagorean projection was minus-6 in the win column. Simply put, the Twins weren’t quite as bad as they seemed, though they were still quite bad.
Run prevention was the biggest issue. The Twins surrendered 889 runs in 2016, which was the second most in the majors and just one behind last place Arizona. The pitching staff ranked 29th in ERA (5.08), again a single measure ahead of the Diamondbacks, and was 27th in FIP (4.57). No MLB team surrendered more hits per nine innings (10.1), no big league bullpen surrendered a allowed a higher batting average (.274) and no AL bullpen allowed more runs (318).
Poor defense played a big role as well. According to Baseball Reference, the Twins were the worst team in the majors in Total Zone Total Fielding Runs Above Average (-76), and Defensive Runs Saved Above Average per 1,200 innings (-5). Minnesota also ranked 29th in the majors and last in the AL in errors (126), and 28th in Defensive Runs Saved Above Average (-59).
Also, injuries were an issue. Twins players spent 638 days on the disabled list in 2016, which was the fifth most in the big leagues.
So, what will the new baseball operations regime do to fix it? Almost nothing. Former general manager Terry Ryan left quite a few building blocks, including athletic Byron Buxton and powerful Miguel Sano (who thankfully will move back to third base full time, thus helping the overall defense). Max Kepler proved himself a very good hitter as a rookie, and his defense in right field is coming along as well. Brian Dozier is still a Twin (for now), as is Joe Mauer, which is nice.
One key move is the addition of catcher Jason Castro, which should help the pitching staff. Castro has been a far better pitch framer than Kurt Suzuki, last year’s top backstop. Given that Minnesota has four capable starters in Ervin Santana, Hector Santiago, Kyle Gibson and Phil Hughes, plus former top prospect Jose Barrios, who should be far better in his second season, that’s a plus.
Bullpen results tend to even out over time, so this year’s group should see a slight improvement for no good reason, but the additions of Matt Belisle and Craig Breslow should add stability as well. Glen Perkins’ shoulder is an issue, but the club plans for the lefty to split the closing duties with Brandon Kintzler anyway.
Projections:
- PECOTA: 80
- Fangraphs: 74
PECOTA thinks the Twins will bounce all the way back to 2015 levels, though Fangraphs isn’t so sure. Better pitching and defense is the key, and there are positive signs the offense should be better as well. If Buxton clicks (and his nine-homer September suggests he may), this team could actually make a move in the AL Central.
The trade deadline will probably have an impact as Dozier was a trade target for several teams over the winter, but outside the defending pennant winners from Cleveland, the AL Central is pretty weak. The Royals and Tigers are both stuck in limbo between competing and rebuilding, and the White Sox have gone all-in on a reset.
Prediction: Over 74.5