Top 10 MLB team over/under bets in 2017

Oakland Athletics

Current Bovada Win Total: 73.5

In early February, the Atlantis Casino Resort in Reno, Nevada posted its win totals – the first official listings in the state. That day, the Oakland Athletics were listed at 66.5 wins. For a club that finished 69-93 with the worst offensive team in the American League (the second of two straight 90-loss campaigns), that seemed fair.

After all, these aren’t your older brother’s Oakland A’s. The Moneyball franchise largely credited for emphasizing on-base percentage above all else was the worst team in the American League at getting on base in 2016. Oakland’s .304 OBP was the third worst in baseball ahead of only Philadelphia and San Diego. The A’s also ranked last in the AL in runs scored (653), slugging percentage (.395) and OPS (.699).

The A’s don’t tear down and rebuild in the modern strategy employed by teams like the Astros and Braves, and to a similar extent, the Cubs. Instead, Oakland has been in constant transformation mode – a hybrid intended to rebuild and contend at the same time. Things have to go perfectly for such a system to pay off, but it’s gone terribly for the A’s since 2014. The decision to trade Josh Donaldson after their last postseason appearance started the latest transition period, which is still in effect.

Nevertheless, 66.5 soon proved to be far too low. Bovada currently lists the A’s at 73.5 victories, and while there’s not nearly as much value as Atlantis offered earlier, there’s still value to be had at that number.

A major reason to be optimistic about Oakland’s chances is its starting rotation. Yes, there are injury concerns as top starter Sonny Gray has already been shut down for three weeks and is likely to begin the season on the disabled list. Still, a young core featuring Kendall Graveman, Jharel Cotton and Sean Manaea shows great promise and there is actually good depth in the rotation. The bullpen is kind of old, but there are plenty of big names with closing experience, such as Sean Doolittle, Ryan Madson, Santiago Casilla and John Axford.

There is also plenty of power in the lineup. Khris Davis hit 42 homers last season and Marcus Semien added 27. Ryon Healy has big time power (13 home runs in 72 games), and Stephen Vogt is a solid hitting catcher.

The A’s were terrible defensively in 2016, and this year’s group doesn’t look much better (especially without Josh Reddick in right), though the addition of speedy Rajai Davis in center should help. Davis, who should help set the table at the top of the order, and other new additions Matt Joyce and Trevor Plouffe, are intriguing and the team hopes they will have a positive impact in the clubhouse given last year’s struggles off the field as much as on it.

Projections:

• PECOTA: 76
• Fangraphs: 79

The A’s underachieved in 2016, but it’s worth noting that the team actually improved its record by one win over 2015 results. Another jump is likely, especially if the team can manufacture more runs, and adding four victories to the ledger is very possible.

Prediction: Over 73.5