Top 10 MLB team over/under bets in 2017

Current Bovada Win Total: 80.5

There’s a common strategy for betting over/under point totals in football: ride the streak. The theory is that if a high-scoring team hits the over three, four, or five games in a row, it’s best to keep betting the over. It’s true that the streak will eventually end, but the thinking is that unless oddsmakers overcompensate, bettors that ride such a streak have an opportunity to rack up a few more wins before it does.

With this strategy in mind, the Baltimore Orioles were 89-73 last year, improving their win total by eight over the previous season. The club has now made three postseason appearances in five years, and has beaten its PECOTA projection five times in a row.

Given that we take a hard look at PECOTA for insight, should we trust its 74-win projection for 2017? Or ride the streak?

Projections:

• PECOTA: 74
• Fangraphs: 82

According to Sam Miller of ESPN.com, and formerly of Baseball Prospectus, Baltimore has exceeded PECOTA expectations with its bullpen – not through an overachieving offense or starting rotation, as might be expected.

Last season, Baltimore had Zach Britton – who allowed four earned runs the entire season and probably should have won the Cy Young – at closer. Overall, the bullpen posted a 3.40 ERA that was best in the American League and third in the majors. While Britton specifically, and Orioles relievers as a whole, can’t be expected to repeat such great success, the unit has overachieved PECOTA’s projected bullpen ERA in four of the last five seasons.

However, there is more to consider. The Orioles led the majors by a large margin with 253 home runs last year, which was the fifth most ever for a team in a single-season. Manny Machado, Mark Trumbo, Chris Davis, Adam Jones, Jonathan Schoop and Pedro Alvarez, who combined to hit 198 of those homers, are all back.

The defense has its strengths as well, headlined by Machado at third, Jones in center and J.J. Hardy at shortstop. Trumbo was a disaster in right field last year, and though he’s not expected to play there much this season after the acquisition of Seth Smith, the O’s seem to think Alvarez can play a little outfield after failing as a third baseman and a first baseman. Hyun Soo Kim is also a terrible defensive outfielder, which means Jones will once again be forced to run around like a mad man so the Orioles can record some outs on fly balls.

The team must replace Matt Wieters behind the plate, but Wieters’ defensive reputation was a bit inflated anyway, so Welington Castillo (who has a bad rep as a pitch framer) and Caleb Joseph (who had exactly zero RBI in 141 plate appearances but is a very good defensive catcher) should be fine as a catching combo.

The starting staff has a solid foundation in Chris Tillman, Kevin Gausman and Dylan Bundy, but Tillman is likely to miss Opening Day due to injury and Wade Miley and Ubaldo Jimenez leave something to be desired at the back end of the rotation.

Simply put, there’s a lot of mixed signals. The bullpen is good. The power is good. The defense is good, except when it’s terrible. The starting rotation is okay. Fortunately, Buck Showalter has the magic formula, and it’s as simple as riding the streak.

Prediction: Over 80.5 wins