Top 10 MLB team over/under bets in 2017

Toronto Blue Jays

Current Bovada Win Total: 84.5

The Boston Red Sox are one of the favorites to win the American League. PECOTA projections aside, the Orioles are still a playoff contender. The New York Yankees may be a year away from the postseason, but the Baby Bombers have the club headed in the right direction. The Rays should be much improved in the win column assuming last year’s terrible luck evens out a bit in 2017.

In other words, the American League East is one of the most competitive divisions in baseball. And that could be bad news for the Toronto Blue Jays.

Despite back-to-back postseason berths, the drop off has already begun in Toronto. Last year, the Blue Jays were 89-73, meaning the club lost four more games in than it did in 2015. Worse, the team saw its run production fall sharply from 891 to 759 while the team allowed roughly the same number of runs in 2016 (666) as it did in 2017 (670).

There lies the biggest issue: Josh Donaldson is still a feared slugger, but Jose Bautista saw his production fall as a 35-year old. Troy Tulowitzki finished 2016 strong and still has great power for a shortstop, but is always an injury concern and hasn’t posted a three-win season since 2014. First baseman Justin Smoak has yet to post better than a 0.6 WAR in six big league seasons. Having Russell Martin behind the plate certainly helps, though Martin’s offense isn’t what it used to be and he posted a career high 27.7 percent strikeout rate last season.

Oh, and Eduardo Encarnacion plays for Cleveland now. Sure, Kendrys Morales will replace some of Encarnacion’s lost production, but he – like everyone else mentioned in the previous paragraph – will be over the age of 30 in 2017 (Morales will actually be 34 in June).

On the plus side, the starting rotation is one of the best in baseball. Aaron Sanchez is a legitimate Cy Young candidate, J.A. Happ won 20 games and earned Cy Young votes in 2016, and Marcus Stroman was better than his 4.37 ERA would have you believe. Marco Estrada has been solid and dependable, and Francisco Liriano showed another potential turnaround with a 2.92 ERA in 10 appearances with the Jays, including eight starts. The bullpen was also quite good, with Roberto Osuna emerging as one of the top closers in the game.

Projections:

• PECOTA: 81
• Fangraphs: 86

Toronto still boasts a dangerous offense, but the lineup has already taken a turn and isn’t getting any younger. The pitching staff was good, but like the core of the batting order, Happ, Estrada and Liriano are regression candidates due to their age. There’s also very little starting pitching depth, so one injury could wreck the rotation. Plus, the bullpen doesn’t look very good on paper despite solid results last season.

A lot of things need to go right for the Blue Jays to make the playoffs, and given the state of the division, hitting 85 wins seems unlikely.

Prediction: Under 84.5 wins