NCAA Tournament 2017 Sweet 16: 5 most likely national title contenders
North Carolina
North Carolina has gamely rebounded from the disappointment of last year’s title game, earning a No. 1 seed on the strength of a resume that included some great wins in and out of ACC play. They’re back as much the same monster we saw last year. The Tar Heels are, as always, a shot volume monster (h/t to John Gasaway, obviously). Their combination of elite offensive rebounding and low turnovers this year means they almost always take more shots per game than their opponents. Though North Carolina amassed a few more losses — and weeks outside the top 5 — they never dropped below 11th in the country in adjusted efficiency, and came into the tournament as top-3.
The bully-balling Tar Heels play almost exclusively with a two-man frontcourt made up of non-shooters. Luke Maye shoots a bit, but post behemoths like Kennedy Meeks, Isaiah Hicks, and Tony Bradley make the Heels incredibly difficult to handle inside on offense. All four (including Maye) have offensive rebounding rates above 9 percent, with all but Isaiah Hicks well above 13. Their bulk and relentlessness inside is very difficult to match up with.
Plus, the Heels have a top seed this year — which nearly always bodes well for their tournament chances. North Carolina has failed to justify its seed just once in its last twelve tournament appearances with a No. 4 seed or lower — which, this year, would be at least an Elite 8 appearance. And they’re 35-4 in the tournament in the fifteen years when considered the ‘favorite’ by pre-tournament adjusted efficiency. The only team left in the tournament that came into the NCAAs with a higher adjusted efficiency was Gonzaga, and they can only see them in the finals.
With Justin Jackson and Joel Berry leading a more efficient attack from outside the arc than the Heels are typically used to, their offense has some balance from outside as well. They still have to navigate a bear of an Elite Eight matchup with UCLA or Kentucky before they can get to the last two games. But they might be the best team left in their half of the bracket, which always bodes well for their tournament chances.