Euroleague playoffs 2017: Quarterfinal preview
(2) CSKA Moscow vs. (7) Baskonia
Game Days: April 18, April 20 at CSKA Moscow; April 25, April 27 at Baskonia; May 2 at CSKA Moscow
Game Times: Games at CSKA Moscow start at 2 p.m. EST. Games at Baskonia start at 4:30 p.m. EST.
5 CSKA players to watch: G Nando De Colo; G Milos Teodosic; C Nikita Kurbanov; F Andrey Vorontsevich; F Kyle Hines
5 Baskonia players to watch: G Shane Larkin; F Adam Hanga; G Rodrigue Beaubois; C Johannes Voigtmann; F Tornike Shengelia
CSKA may not have had the record to get the no. 1 seed, but that’s because they took a more Spursian approach to the season. CSKA rested players more frequently than anyone, particularly Teodosic, and it resulted in a 22-8 record. But fully healthy, this was a juggernaut on offense, just like last season -= they hit the 90-point mark 13 times, most in Euroleague, and still hit a point differential of +8.4, tops in the competition. They have balanced, deep, and potent lineup that are focused on generating a ton of 3-point shots, which they’re hitting 40.6 percent of. They have last year’s MVP in De Colo, perhaps this year’s MVP in Teodosic, and perhaps Europe’s best shooter in Vorontsevich. The massive Kurbanov, Kyle Hines, and De Colo head a pretty solid defense, as well. CSKA’s so dangerous because they’re good at everything.
Their opponents, meanwhile, are like a lesser version of CSKA. Baskonia isn’t good at everything, but they are decidedly not bad at anything. Strengths are hard to come by, but this team defends pretty well, moves the ball, has a few shooters and can protect the rim at a decent rate. A rag-tag team full of former NBA players mixed with Euroleague veterans, Baskonia can attack you in multiple ways, but their attack is centered around a pretty solid pick-and-pop game between Larkin and Voigtmann. Larkin has quietly been one of the better Euroleague point guards this year, and he can take over a game at any time.
Predictably, Baskonia is going to have to defend at an elite level to have a chance in this series. CSKA is going to get baskets, and Baskonia should be able to as well, due to their ability to throw multiple ball-handlers on the floor at all times, which could help them isolate Teodosic one-on-one, a victory for Larkin or Beaubois a majority of the time. If Baskonia can hit their rotations and force CSKA into misses, they’ll have an advantage, as they’re one of the better defensive rebounding teams in Euroleague. The emergence of Ilimane Diop is particularly important here, as he is Baskonia’s best chance at protecting the rim. His length and energy could help control Hines and Kurbanov out of the pick-and-roll, and allow Voigtmann and Shengelia to control the glass. Keep an eye on the Vorontsevich matchup — if Baskonia is forced to make Shengelia or Hanga cling to the perimeter, that could really cripple their interior defense by having one of their best defenders isolated on an island.
There’s a path to a Baskonia upset — Larkin killing Milos in the pick-and-roll, Hanga and Shengelia switching everything, positive Diop minutes, and a significant advantage on the defensive glass – and that’s how Baskonia beat CSKA on March 17. But everything went right for Baskonia there, and they won by one at home. This is CSKA. They’ll still have a size advantage in the backcourt, they still have Kurbanov, one of Europe’s scariest post men, and they hit 40 percent of their 3-pointers on a bad day. They have Teodosic, and they have De Colo. That’s going to be hard for most teams to stop once, much less three times.
Prediction: CSKA in 4. Baskonia’s defense might be good enough to get one against CSKA, particularly if Beaubois or Budinger can give them a boost outside of their basic Voigtmann/Shengelia/Larkin offensive package. But I don’t see how there’s an answer for all of CSKA’s shooters and playmakers here.