Lottery odds: 0.5 percent
Draft status: Undecided
The Miami Heat narrowly missed out on the NBA Playoffs, but a late lottery selection shouldn’t discourage hopes about the franchise’s future. Here, Miami goes with Terrance Ferguson, a former five-star prospect who played in Australia this season and offers a bit of a blank canvas for a team to work with.
From a physical perspective, Ferguson is an excellent prospect. At 6-foot-7 with a 6-foot-10 wingspan, he’s got good size to play the wing in the modern NBA. He lacks the strength to be a small ball power forward, but should fit nicely as a shooting guard or small forward. Ferguson is also an elite athlete who should test well during the workout process.
The thing holding the 18-year old back is his lack of production in Australia. In about 15 minutes per game, he averaged just 4.6 points and shot it poorly from behind the 3-point arc. While he was a streaky shooter in high school, 31.3 percent from deep won’t cut it in the NBA, so he’ll need to become more consistent from deep to round out his profile.
Ferguson still has a ways to go before he’s a productive NBA player, but he’s young, athletic and big, which makes him worth the risk.