The lineup changes shaping the first round of the NBA Playoffs

The NBA playoffs require quick adjustments. That can often mean moving away from things that have worked for your team all season — or longer, in some cases — but when suffering four losses in a seven-game span ends your season, decisive action is required. Sometimes a change is necessitated due to injury (we’ve already seen six teams — the Bulls, Warriors, Spurs, Clippers, Jazz, and Blazers — change their starting lineup this postseason for that reason), but others, it’s how the specific matchup is playing out in the early stages of the series.

Four different coaches have attempted mid-series lineup changes for strategic reasons during these playoffs: Nate McMillan of the Pacers, Dwane Casey of the Raptors, David Fizdale of the Grizzlies, and Brad Stevens of the Celtics. In ascending order of how surprising the lineup changes were, here’s how those moves have worked out.

Pacers: C.J. Miles starts Games 3 and 4 in place of Monta Ellis

Indiana’s starting lineup of Jeff Teague, Monta Ellis, Paul George, Thaddeus Young, and Myles Turner was slightly more problematic during the first two games of their loss to the Cavaliers than its bench lineups (-7 in 35 minutes compared to even in 61 minutes), but Ellis himself was practically non-existent on either end, so a change was warranted.

Ellis scored 13 points across those two games (only eight after the first quarter of Game 1) and it took him 12 shots to get to that total. He had only four assists and six rebounds, and he was nearly as big a part of their defensive issues as Jeff Teague, as he couldn’t handle anybody on switches and was caught napping in help defense several times. Miles didn’t fare much better offensively in those two games (14 points on 13 shots, missed the game-winning attempt at the buzzer of Game 1), but he at least has a respectable shot and needs to be guarded away from the ball, which can’t be said of Monta. He’s also a bit stouter defensively, though he, too, struggled when asked to switch onto LeBron James and/or Kevin Love. (Shocker.)

I’d love to say the starting lineup switch worked wonders for the first half of Game 3 with Indiana lighting it up for 74 points and staking itself to a 25-point lead at the break, but the Teague-Miles-George-Young-Turner group was actually just plus-1 in seven minutes. It was the bench and mixed units that built the big cushion, and it all came crumbling down after halftime anyway.

It’s difficult to say McMillan’s one big move accomplished much, but he was probably drawing dead to begin with anyway.

Grizzlies: James Ennis, Zach Randolph start Games 3 and 4 for Wayne Selden, JaMychal Green

This switch was actually made at halftime of Game 2, when the Grizz got blasted by 19 points in the first half — and it wasn’t that close. Ennis did a better job on Kawhi Leonard during the second half of that game than anyone else had during the first three halves of the series (which is saying something, considering Kawhi poured in 19 points in that second half), and Randolph did his standard Z-Bo things.

Given his team’s improved post-break performance, Fizdale made the switch permanent in Game 3, and while things have worked out swimmingly for the Grizzlies, it’s difficult to say the starting lineup has been the reason why. The Mike Conley – Vince Carter – Ennis – Randolph – Marc Gasol unit was outscored by 12 points in 21 minutes across Games 3 and 4. Memphis is plus-25 in the other 75 minutes of game time.

The real beneficiary of the switch has been Conley, who has really found himself after struggling badly during the second half of Game 1. He’s been pretty magical since that point, slapping up back-to-back 24-point, 8-assist lines in Games 2 and 3 before lighting the world on fire with his 35-9-8 line and back-and-forth battle with Leonard down the stretch in Game 4.

Meanwhile, Ennis has continued to play solid defense and Randolph has 51 points and 29 rebounds across the last three games, two of which were Grizzly wins that tied the series at two games apiece. While the numbers say it’s not necessarily true that this lineup has played the largest role in spurring Memphis’ series comeback, the confidence boost they’ve gotten from Randolph being more heavily in the mix and Ennis at least making Kawhi work harder to post his ridiculous lines has been palpable.

Raptors: Norman Powell starts Games 4 and 5 for Jonas Valanciunas

It wasn’t necessarily surprising that Dwane Casey made a lineup change after his team got smacked in the mouth in Game 3, but Valanciunas coming off the bench was a stunner — even if he was the most obvious candidate.

He’d started 381 of 389 regular season and playoff games during his NBA career before opening Game 4 on the bench. The two postseason games he started on the pine last season came after he returned from an injury that saw Bismack Biyombo light it up in his absence. Powell, meanwhile, played five minutes in Game 1, didn’t see the floor in Game 2, and got a bunch of garbage time minutes in Game 3.

Boy, are the Raptors happy he poured in 10 fourth-quarter points in that blowout. He was terrific in Game 4, posting 12 points, 4 rebounds, and 4 assists while playing his usual solid defense. And he was somehow even better in Game 5, when he was the best player on the floor for large portions of the evening. His final line of 25-4-4 with three steals somehow doesn’t do his impact justice. He was everywhere on both ends of the floor.

Valanciunas, meanwhile, has been more effective in his reserve role. He made all five of his shots in Game 4, with the Raps’ entire 11-point margin of victory coming during his 22 minutes on the floor; in Game 5, he had 8 points and 7 boards, while the Raps outscored the Bucks by 15 points in his 21 minutes. His pick-and-rolls with Kyle Lowry have been nearly unstoppable, and his physicality inside has given Toronto’s bench units a different, better look.

It’s hard to imagine Casey’s lineup change having worked any better.

Celtics: Gerald Green starts Games 3 and 4 for Amir Johnson

This was easily the most surprising move of the first round so far. Johnson taking a seat after the Celtics dropped the opening two games at home was somewhat predictable, but Green was — at best — the fourth or fifth Celtics bench player anyone would have picked as his potential replacement if told Brad Stevens was benching Johnson but not who was getting the start. Kelly Olynyk, Marcus Smart, Jonas Jerebko, even Jaylen Brown all seemed like more likely candidates based on the way Stevens has constructed his rotation throughout the season and the fact that Green scored just one point in five total minutes across Games 1 and 2.

And yet, this is another move that has worked exactly as intended. Green’s outside shooting loosened up the floor, and he poured in 26 points in his two starts — 18 in Game 2, including a hot-starting first quarter that helped Boston stake itself to an early lead. The Isaiah Thomas – Avery Bradley – Green – Jae Crowder – Al Horford unit was plus-15 in 29 minutes as Boston won both games in Chicago to tie the series at two games apiece.

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Rajon Rondo suffering an injury and getting replaced by the likes of Jerian Grant, Michael Carter-Williams, and Isaiah Canaan likely had a deleterious effect on Chicago’s performance (it’s hard to conclude otherwise when you watch how bad those points guards were in those two games), but Stevens’ gambit energized his team’s scoring as well. It’s not just the short-circuiting Chicago offense that led the Celtics to get back into this thing.