Eric Hosmer’s early struggles telling of the player he really is

Kansas City Royals’ first baseman Eric Hosmer’s contract year has gotten off to an awful start. Will his struggles significantly affect his next contract?

Eric Hosmer entered 2017 expecting to be an extremely rich man by year’s end. While the current $12.5 million he is earning this season with the Kansas City Royals isn’t too shabby, Hosmer has his sights on a serious payday as he nears the end of his final arbitration year.

Some believe that the Royals expect Hosmer to seek a 10-year deal in free agency. While Hosmer has tried to back off that, the Scott Boras-represented Gold Glover has hinted at his intentions to seriously test the free agent market.

Meanwhile, Kansas City, which will also be attempting to retain Mike Moustakas, Lorenzo Cain, and Alicdes Escobar, is not known for being big spenders. However, small market Royals did finish 2016 with the ninth-highest payroll in baseball and have benefited from superior attendance and television ratings. These recent financial developments have kept the Royals faithful hopeful that they will be able to retain Hosmer long-term.

But even if Kansas City can find a way to match Hosmer’s asking price, there remains one big question: should it?

Hosmer is undoubtedly one of the game’s better fielding first basemen. However, his offensive numbers have largely been inconsistent.

In his first season in 2011, Hosmer performed well, slashing .293/.334/.465. He regressed in 2012, however, hitting just .232/.304/.359. He bounced back in 2013 with a .302/.353/.448 line but regressed again in 2014, going .270/.318/.398.

Hosmer had his best season in 2015, slashing .297/.363/.459. He had a decent follow-up in 2016, gathering a career-high 25 homers and 104 RBIs, but his slash line was only slightly above average: .266/.328/.433 (a 102 OPS+).

So far this year, Hosmer has raised more doubts as to whether he can be a consistent hitter. He’s slashing just .220/.273/.293 with one home run and five RBI’s in 82 at-bats. He is certainly not doing himself, or Boras any favors for his future contract negotiations.

Mike Axisa of CBS Sports does a good job of detailing Hosmer’s early season struggles:

"Hosmer, a left-handed hitter, has pulled two balls to right field in the air so far this season. Two. That is unfathomable. Don’t get me wrong, being able to hit the ball to the opposite field is a nice skill to have — announcers enjoy it so much that every opposite-field single is automatically dubbed a “nice piece of hitting” — but for a first baseman expected to provide offensive might, being unable to pull the ball in the air is a problem. Where is the power supposed to come from?"

As Axisa points out, Hosmer is not pulling the ball this year, leading to a decrease in power. In addition, Axisa mentions that Hosmer’s career numbers are, at best, slightly above average for an offense-heavy position like first base.

A 10-year deal for nearly any player sounds pretty ridiculous. But we’re also in an era of baseball where huge contracts are not abnormal. Giancarlo Stanton (13 years), Joey Votto (10 years) and Prince Fielder (nine years) have all received long-term deals recently. However, all three had astronomically better numbers than Hosmer prior to their big paydays.

I don’t think Hosmer will land a 10-year deal in free agency. I do think he will garner a more lucrative contract than he deserves.

The numbers do not lie: he is simply a decent hitting first basemen with above-average defensive skills.

Hosmer is also, however, a proven winner, which some teams may value highly. He was part of back-to-back World Series runs, performing especially well in the 2014 ALDS and ALCS.

Hosmer will also be just 28 years old when he hits free agency. Moreover, he heads a weak free agent class, with the first base talent highlighted by Hosmer, Lucas Duda and Mitch Moreland.

Next: All-Time 25-Man MLB Roster

It is unlikely that any team will give Hosmer the 10 years he may seek. It is very likely that whichever team lands him after this season will have paid too much.