The 10 most irresponsible 2017 NBA Draft prospect comparisons
1. Let’s figure out if Jayson Tatum is good first
Jayson Tatum is a polarizing figure in this draft class — some are all-in on his scoring ability, while others have doubts that he finds an NBA role if he can’t score one-on-one. That hasn’t stopped an enormous hype train for the Duke forward, who has drawn Carmelo Anthony and Paul George comparisons for his abilities in isolation. Even conservative comparisons, like Jabari Parker, still have Tatum projecting as a 20-point scorer.
This is far from the only outcome for Tatum. The comparisons with these great isolation scorers are predicated on Tatum thriving on mid-range shots, which limits his effectiveness against NBA defenses. If he can’t hit at an elite level from these spots, it’ll be hard to justify giving him the touches he will demand. His outside shooting and playmaking are worth developing, but at the root, it’s difficult to see Tatum as anything relevant if he’s not a sub-elite top scorer.
The Melo and Parker comparisons also bely a lack of appreciation for Tatum’s defensive profile, which should be decent at the NBA level, and could be a fall-back for him to be a rotation player. With his length and lower body strength, Tatum should have success defending as a small-ball four, and he’s enough of a havoc creator to offset concerns about his quickness against wings. That’s an important distinction — Tatum may not have the sure offensive capabilities of a Melo, but he’s probably going to be more consistent than him on the defensive end, especially if he’s not a primary scoring option.
Much like other players on this list, there’s a root base of truth to calling Tatum the next Melo. But at the same time, this only represents the extremely optimistic outlook for his abilities, and will leave fans with a high degree of disappointment if he isn’t this multi-time All-Star player.
Next: 2017 NBA Draft Big Board -- Post-combine and lottery edition
Player comparisons are a necessary evil for draft geeks to convey prospect evaluations in an easy-to-understand way. But if there’s anything to take from this, it’s that too often, we focus only on the simplest and most optimistic comparisons, and too often that negatively influences our expectations. Hyping prospects by comparing them to current NBA players is fine, and helpful. But please remember, always, to hype responsibly.