Ranking the NASCAR Cup Series championship contenders at the halfway point

A lot can change over the summer, but right now it looks like a four-car race for the Monster Energy NASCAR Cup Series championship.

Momentum is a concept that is discussed and debated in nearly every sport, but it certainly has a place in sizing up the contenders for any given Monster Energy NASCAR Cup Series championship. Especially in the Chase/playoff era, the teams that have found a groove by the fall aren’t always the same ones in that position in the spring, and the long, hot summer has a way of giving birth to new drivers with a shot to win it all.

The playoff format means that even if one flounders around, relatively speaking all the way until early September, you could still pick off a win at Darlington or Richmond and be among the playoff field of 16. That’s great news for the likes of the Joe Gibbs Racing camp, any Stewart-Haas Racing driver not named Kurt Busch, and even Dale Earnhardt Jr.

Yet half a regular season is a pretty good sample size when it comes to what both stats and the eye test tell us about who has a really good shot at winning the championship once the playoffs arrive. With respect to Kurt Busch, Ricky Stenhouse Jr. and Ryan Newman, even some drivers who have already won in 2017 will be longshots in the 10-race sprint to the finish.

So who’s got a real chance to win this year’s NASCAR Cup Series championship? Here’s who we think will be celebrating in Homestead, in increasing order of likelihood.

5. The field

Strengths: Obviously, the numbers favor the field, plus it will have strong name value if drivers like Kevin Harvick, Kyle Busch and Joey Logano don’t join the ranks of “true” contenders before season’s end.

Achilles heel: Neither Harvick nor Kyle Busch has won a race yet, and Logano essentially hasn’t either since his team was found to have violated rules during his lone victory. The single-race winners we already mentioned aren’t consistent enough on a weekly basis, and the likes of Chase Elliott, Jamie McMurray and Clint Bowyer need to find another gear before the playoffs start. The winner could come from whichever 12 drivers aren’t the four we’re about to get to, but it doesn’t seem likely right this moment.

4. Kyle Larson

Strengths: The #42 Chevrolet has been fast pretty much everywhere, having really only a single bad day at Charlotte and a so-so day at Martinsville. Larson appears to be growing in confidence, he figures out his own line when necessary and his crew doesn’t lose him many positions on pit road.

Achilles heel: Finishing off wins when Larson has the best car has been an issue. He’s had five second-place finishes, perhaps none more heartbreaking than this past week of Dover when he led more than half the race and was done in by a late-race restart and two unfortunate cautions not of his own making. Larson is the future, but one gets the feeling that future still might start a year from now instead of in 2017.

3. Brad Keselowski

Strengths: If there’s one contender who seems utterly unflappable, it’s Brad K., which is funny since he had a bit of a reputation as a hothead earlier in his career. When he’s got the best car, he is contending for the win if he doesn’t get caught up in something, and when he has a 10th-place car, he usually brings it home a spot or two better.

Achilles heel: Bad luck, which is the one weakness that isn’t fixable. Keselowski certainly hasn’t been cursed this season, but trouble is finding him more often than the other contenders. If that’s still the case come the fall, he’ll need to be incredible in the races where things are going right to take the championship. An honorable mention here would be that he doesn’t always seem to be on the same page with crew chief Paul Wolfe.

2. Martin Truex Jr.

Strengths: Has been scary dominant on the intermediate tracks, and in Cup Series racing, that counts for a lot. A playoff slate that includes Chicago, Charlotte, Kansas and Texas and finishes at Homestead falls right into Truex’s sweet spot. As well, the addition of Erik Jones’ 77 team, which sometimes can hurt a single-car operation, appears to be nothing but a boon for the Furniture Row bunch. Oh, and the stage racing system suits Truex just fine, as he’s won the most stages of anyone so far.

Achilles heel: It could be the pressure that comes with being one of the perceived favorites. Truex arguably “arrived” two seasons ago, but it’s worth noting that despite looking quite dangerous on 2016, he didn’t even make the Round of 8 in the final Chase. How will this team respond if the 78 is still alive after the first few playoff rounds should be fascinating to watch.

Next: The side of Kyle Busch you don't see, on display at Dover

1. Jimmie Johnson

Strengths: Do we even need to do this? Sigh … okay, well, Johnson has done it before, winning his seven Cup Series championships across a variety of point systems. He’s won more races than any active driver, has the most wins so far this season and is the only competitor who seems to be able to “steal” a race the way he did at Dover last weekend, when he didn’t have the best car and managed to beat the best car anyway (albeit with some things going his way). Crew chief Chad Knaus is the best in the business. We could go on, but there’s no need.

Achilles heel: Believe it or not, it could be the Hendrick Motorsports equipment. Dale Jr. and Kasey Kahne have been uninspiring, and Chase Elliott looks more like the next Jamie McMurray right now than the next Bill Elliott. The Hendrick cars don’t look like the class of the field most weeks, and while Johnson, Knaus and company have more than worked around that, it’s possible the 48 may actually be at a slight disadvantage against the 78, 2 and 42 during the playoffs in terms of raw speed.