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Monster Energy NASCAR Cup Series playoffs: Who’s in, who’s out

By Nick Tylwalk

DOVER, DE - JUNE 04: Jimmie Johnson, driver of the #48 Lowe's Chevrolet, leads Kyle Larson, driver of the #42 Target Chevrolet, and Martin Truex Jr., driver of the #78 Furniture Row/Denver Mattress Toyota, during the Monster Energy NASCAR Cup Series AAA 400 Drive for Autism at Dover International Speedway on June 4, 2017 in Dover, Delaware. (Photo by Sean Gardner/Getty Images)
DOVER, DE - JUNE 04: Jimmie Johnson, driver of the #48 Lowe's Chevrolet, leads Kyle Larson, driver of the #42 Target Chevrolet, and Martin Truex Jr., driver of the #78 Furniture Row/Denver Mattress Toyota, during the Monster Energy NASCAR Cup Series AAA 400 Drive for Autism at Dover International Speedway on June 4, 2017 in Dover, Delaware. (Photo by Sean Gardner/Getty Images) /
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With a dozen races left until the NASCAR Cup Series playoffs, time is running short for some drivers to punch their ticket for a spot.

A total of 16 drivers will qualify for the inaugural edition of the Monster Energy NASCAR Cup Series playoffs, and we don’t know who all of them will be. But after 14 regular season races, we’ve got a pretty good idea of who’s in for sure, who’s probably going to make it and who is on the bubble a la March Madness.

There’s no bracketology in NASCAR since that’s not how these playoffs work, but we can examine the field and see who is playing with house money through Richmond and who might need to step it up and get some help to make the field of 16.

Locked in

Jimmie Johnson (3 wins); Martin Truex Jr., Brad Keselowski (2 wins each); Kyle Larson, Ryan Blaney, Kurt Busch, Ricky Stenhouse Jr., Ryan Newman, Austin Dillon (1 win each) 

This group of 2017 race winners would make up half of the field if the playoffs started today. Only eight or more new winners for the year could make it so that one of these guys won’t get to race for the championship, and with 12 regular season stops left, the chances of that happening are almost nil.

There’s also a very good chance that the eventual 2017 champion is going to come from this group, with one of Johnson, Truex and Larson looking like the fastest car most weeks and Brad K. not far behind when he’s not caught up in trouble of other drivers’ making.

Comfortably in but not guaranteed

Kevin Harvick, Kyle Busch, Chase Elliott, Jamie McMurray

Harvick and Busch have been the class of their respective teams, to the point where it would be surprising if they make it through the entire regular season without a victory — especially Busch. Elliott and McMurray, meanwhile, have rarely contended for wins but have been extremely consistent. McMurray has a 32-point lead over the next non-winner in the standings, which is a decent sized cushion under the 2017 system.

On the bubble

Denny Hamlin, Clint Bowyer

While Hamlin has shown sparks of life at times, he hasn’t been nearly as fast as teammate Kyle Busch on a regular basis. Bowyer is one of the feel good stories of 2017 after his move to Stewart-Haas Racing but would undoubtedly like to nab a win to complete it. Both of these drivers are fine right now, but a victory by someone behind them in the standings and/or consecutive DNFs this summer could make them much less confident in a hurry.

Last driver in

Joey Logano

Surprised to see him here? Recall that his victory at the Toyota Owners 400 is “encumbered” for playoff purposes, so it doesn’t help lock him into the field. At the time, it seemed like no big deal, but as the 22 has fallen off somewhat in the spring, it’s starting to matter a lot more. Logano has just a three-point lead over the next driver on this list, so he’s one bad day away from feeling some pressure.

First driver out

Matt Kenseth

To be honest, Kenseth is the type of driver that you could make a case for not deserving a playoff spot. He’s 13th in points, and has been slightly above average overall, though he hasn’t contended for wins even in places that are good for him like Dover. Kenseth doesn’t need a win because of how close he is to Logano and Bowyer in points, but he and his team would probably feel infinitely better if they had one.

Outside looking in

Erik Jones, Trevor Bayne, Daniel Suarez, Kasey Kahne

Rookies Jones and Suarez have been very solid, and Bayne is experiencing a boost in Roush Fenway Racing’s fortune that has helped teammate Ricky Stenhouse Jr. even more. Kahne appears to be on the downside of his career but it still racy some weeks. All four drivers are within 100 points of the final playoff spot, so there’s time left to improve their fortune. But not a ton of it.

Next: Danica Patrick goes off on booing fans

Win or go home

Everyone else, but particularly Ty Dillon, Dale Earnhardt Jr. and Chris Buescher

From 22nd on down in the standings, there’s essentially no hope of making the playoffs on points at this juncture. On the other hand, if Dillon, Junior or Buescher won a race, there’s also little possibility they’d fall outside the top 30 in points and thus miss out for that reason. The goal for these three teams and the likes of Paul Menard, A.J. Allmendinger and Danica Patrick should be simple: forget stage racing or points and go all out for a victory, whether that means gambling on tires, fuel mileage or whatever. It’s their only hope for making the Cup Series playoffs and experiencing meaningful racing beyond Richmond.

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