Fansided

5 reasons to love the Jose Quintana deal for the Cubs

By Joshua Sadlock

CHICAGO, IL - JUNE 27: Starting pitcher Jose Quintana #62 of the Chicago White Sox delivers the ball against the New York Yankees at Guaranteed Rate Field on June 27, 2017 in Chicago, Illinois. (Photo by Jonathan Daniel/Getty Images)
CHICAGO, IL - JUNE 27: Starting pitcher Jose Quintana #62 of the Chicago White Sox delivers the ball against the New York Yankees at Guaranteed Rate Field on June 27, 2017 in Chicago, Illinois. (Photo by Jonathan Daniel/Getty Images) /
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DENVER, CO – JULY 08: Starting pitcher Jose Quintana #62 throws in the first inning against the Colorado Rockies at Coors Field on July 8, 2017 in Denver, Colorado. (Photo by Matthew Stockman/Getty Images)
DENVER, CO – JULY 08: Starting pitcher Jose Quintana #62 throws in the first inning against the Colorado Rockies at Coors Field on July 8, 2017 in Denver, Colorado. (Photo by Matthew Stockman/Getty Images) /

2. The Cubs bought low

Opinion on whether or not Jose Quintana fit the billing of an “ace” was split back in December when the White Sox were shopping him for the first time. Through 18 starts in 2017, he hasn’t really done much to settle the debate. His strikeouts are up this year, but so are his walks. His home runs are up slightly as well, but more of his fly balls are turning into home runs than seems statistically likely.

Prior to the 2017 season, Quintana was always comfortably below the MLB average for HR/FB, and his career average is 6.7 percent. This year, his rate is all the way up to 10 percent when the MLB average is 8.2 percent. Something’s got to give there.

Quintana is getting more empty swings on pitches outside of the strike zone this season and fewer swings at pitches in the zone — good. He has also given up a .325 batting average and .640 slugging percentage on his sinker — bad. Opponents batted .224 against his sinker last year with a .329 slugging percentage — yikes. He has also given up a ridiculous .333 BABIP on his sinker this year, which shows room for regression closer to the mean.

Pitching is such a difficult craft that being off by a few centimeters can change the outcome of an at-bat. Something is off with Quintana’s command this year, and mechanical tweak here and there can get him back on the right track. He is getting more swings and misses on his curveball and changeup this year, which indicates a potential return to dominance with a few adjustments. After a few bad starts for Quintana to start July, the White Sox likely panicked and took the first good deal that came their way. Epstein was smart to buy low here.

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