Training camp expectations, NFL power rankings and more
With each new NFL season comes wild expectations and unabashed hope. Those are good things, but let’s separate reality from fantasy.
July is a time for dreamers. It’s a time for grand visions of what rookies can immediately become and which veterans are going to turn back the hands of time.
Yet reality is waiting right around the corner, ready to dole out the cold facts of an NFL season.
All offseason we have listened to breathless reports of players being in great shape. We have heard how Adrian Peterson will revitalize the Saints’ running game, and what Marshawn Lynch’s fresh legs can do for the Raiders. We’ve been told that Jamaal Charles is going to have a renaissance with the Broncos at the expense of his old haunt in Kansas City.
There have been discussions about the Patriots’ chances of going 16-0 for the second time in a decade, disregarding the notion of Any Given Sunday. Conversely, the Jets have been thrown into the ditch, despite a rebuilding effort that showcases intelligence, not ineptitude.
We have heard plenty about the Jaguars defense and how special it can be with the additions of A.J. Bouye and Calais Campbell. There have been reports Brock Osweiler’s arm looks golden, and is perhaps ready to take the city of Cleveland by storm. If only Osweiler can beat out rookie DeShone Kizer, who also looks like the second coming.
In all this euphoria, reality has been forgotten. While Peterson, Lynch and Charles have enjoyed tremendous careers, they are much more likely to be bust than boom. All three are over 30, a death knell for running backs.
New England is the favorite to win it all, but to predict a perfect campaign is absurd. Only the 1972 Miami Dolphins were ever perfect, and they achieved that feat in a league far more unbalanced. The Patriots are a great bet to reach the Super Bowl, but they, like every other team in league history, are a bad gamble for perfection.
New York has one of the worst rosters in recent memory. The Jets don’t have a single playmaker on offense and the defense is completely devoid of veteran talent behind a stout defensive line. General manager Mike Maccagnan did this by design, releasing Nick Mangold, Ryan Clady, Darrelle Revis, Brandon Marshall, David Harris and others. While it’s true Maccagnan is part of the reason this rebuild needs to happen, it’s also true that most executives would have attempted a quick-fix to save their jobs. Give Maccagnan credit for doing the right thing, even at the expense of his own security.
In Jacksonville, the defense should be terrific. Bouye and Jalen Ramsey form an elite corner duo, while Campbell joins Malik Jackson, Myles Jack, Telvin Smith and others. Still, nothing substantial will change until Blake Bortles and the line in front of him improves. For now, the Jaguars are in a holding pattern.
Cleveland has the right idea, but quarterback issues remain. Kizer might be the long-term solution, while Osweiler was brought in as a salary dump that will result in a second-round pick from the Texans come April. Osweiler isn’t the answer, he never was the answer,and he never will be the answer. The Browns are going to improve with a real front seven and a quality offensive line, but the long road to relevancy continues.
If you are pining for an accurate prediction of how the season will unfold, consider the following: it’s all about coaches and quarterbacks.
In today’s NFL, when a team has a good coach/quarterback combination, it’s going to the playoffs. Consider the elite combos around the league and you’ll see this rings true. Tom Brady and Bill Belichick in New England. Mike Tomlin and Ben Roethlisberger in Pittsburgh. Pete Carroll and Russell Wilson in Seattle. Even franchises with merely good personnel at one of those positions will thrive if the other partner is elite (think Green Bay, Kansas City, Atlanta, Baltimore).
Those types of teams will always be in the mix at the end, barring horrific injuries.
Which is the perfect segue to this truth: injuries define every NFL season. A few years back, the Ravens were a contender to reach another Super Bowl under John Harbaugh. Instead, the team went 5-11 as injuries wiped out Joe Flacco, Terrell Suggs, Chris Canty, Dennis Pitta, Justin Forsett, Steve Smith and others. Every year, a half-dozen teams (or more) see their dreams dashed as star players are carried off on a cart.
More often, it’s about the timing of injuries. How do those absences fall against the backdrop of the schedule? On the other side, which teams get to take advantage of said injuries? We regularly forget that NFL success is largely about staying healthier than the next team.
Yes, July is a time for dreamers, but the NFL is no place for them.
Power rankings
Top 10 quarterback-head coach combinations in 2017
1. Tom Brady-Bill Belichick – New England Patriots
2. Ben Roethlisberger-Mike Tomlin – Pittsburgh Steelers
3. Russell Wilson-Pete Carroll – Seattle Seahawks
4. Aaron Rodgers-Mike McCarthy – Green Bay Packers
5. Drew Brees-Sean Payton – New Orleans Saints
6. Matt Ryan-Dan Quinn – Atlanta Falcons
7. Alex Smith-Andy Reid – Kansas City Chiefs
8. Joe Flacco-John Harbaugh – Baltimore Ravens
9. Derek Carr-Jack Del Rio – Oakland Raiders
10. Carson Palmer-Bruce Arians – Arizona Cardinals
Quotable
"“I’m still sticking with my 30 number. Because we know this is going to blow up, I’m gonna say 30,” Carr said laughing when asked how many sacks Mack could earn. “That’s if he doesn’t get held … if they start calling the holdings, if they start calling them like they should — I’m saying 30.”"
– Raiders quarterback Derek Carr on how many sacks teammate Khalil Mack will have in 2017
It’s always good to have dreams. Mack, the reigning NFL Defensive Player of the Year, is among the best bets in football to break the single-season sack record of 22.5, set by Michael Strahan. He won’t get to 30, but anything even approaching 20 would be tremendous. Last year, Oakland ranked dead last in sacks with 25 as a team.
Podcast
In the latest episode, I spoke with former NFL agent and cap expert Joel Corry of CBS Sports about what to expect with upcoming contracts including Kirk Cousins, Le’Veon Bell, Jimmy Garoppolo and Kam Chancellor. Later, Ray Rivard of Lombardi Ave. stopped by to give us the outlook on the Green Bay Packers, and we finish with two contenders who I believe are nearing the end of their windows.
This week, we welcome Melissa Jacobs of TheFootballGirl.com to talk Colin Kaepernick, and I delve into which training camps are the ones to watch. Please go to iTunes and subscribe/rate the podcast. There are new episodes every Monday, with national guests each week!
Random stat
The Minnesota Vikings have been to nine NFC championship games in the Super Bowl era, the most of any team without a title. The Philadelphia Eagles are next on the list, checking in with six.
The only team not to have appeared in a conference title game is the Houston Texans.
Info learned this week
1. Chargers injury luck moved with them
The Los Angeles Chargers have been dogged by bad injury luck over the past two years. After moving from San Diego, their luck may have relocated with them. Wide receiver Mike Williams, the Chargers’ first-round pick, could face season-ending surgery on his back for a herniated disc. At the very least, Williams will start training camp on the Physically Unable to Perform List while the second epidural shot takes hold.
While the injury would hurt, Los Angeles can overcome it at that position. The Chargers would roll with Keenan Allen, Tyrell Williams and Travis Benjamin as a starting trio, one of the stronger in the league. Still, Allen would need to stay healthy in that scenario. This is no sure thing, with Allen playing in only nine games over the past two years.
2. Le’Veon Bell wants outlandish contract
Bell is 25 years old and one of the best players in football, a fact which has been reflected in his reported contract demands. According to Ike Taylor of NFL Network, Bell wants to be paid as a top running back in addition to a second wide receiver, due to his 75 receptions last year.
The Steelers tagged Bell this offseason, paying him $12 million for the upcoming campaign. After the season, Bell could hit the open market and see if a team is willing to pay his price. If history is any indication, it won’t be Pittsburgh.
Bell is a wonderful talent but isn’t worth a large, long-term contract. Running backs historically begin to decline around age 28, and Bell has already dealt with multiple suspensions and a torn ACL in 2015. For all his positive attributes, most teams are wary of investing in players at his position, regardless of talent.
3. Michael Vick apologizes for comments toward Colin Kaepernick’s appearance
When we think back to the 2017 offseason, we will think of the Colin Kaepernick saga. Michael Vick entered the fray, saying Kaepernick should change his hairstyle to be more professional. While Vick apologized in the immediate aftermath, the talking point remains.
In short, Kaepernick shouldn’t be judged on his hairstyle. Nothing should matter but his play on the field, his criminal background and whether his contract demands are reasonable. Kaepernick isn’t a starting quarterback, but he would be a top-tier backup. He also has no criminal history and assuming he doesn’t want an absurd salary, there’s ample reason to sign him.
A legion of contending teams could upgrade by signing him, including the Seahawks, Raiders, Buccaneers, Falcons, Packers, Titans and Cowboys.
4. Adam Jones gets suspended … again
The Cincinnati Bengals open the season against the Baltimore Ravens, and corner Adam “Pacman” Jones will be watching with the rest of us. Jones was suspended for the first game of the 2017 campaign for a violation of the league’s personal conduct policy, stemming from a January arrest.
At some point, the Bengals need to move on from Jones. He’s 33 years old, an average corner and a bad example for the younger players. Cincinnati would save $6.6 million by releasing Jones, while simultaneously opening up additional snaps for William Jackson III. Jackson was a first-round pick last year, but he missed the entire season with a torn pectoral.
5. Eric Dickerson isn’t sold on Jared Goff
Dickerson, a former Los Angeles Rams great and Hall of Fame running back, is taking up for Jared Goff’s backup. Goff, who went 0-7 last year, hasn’t inspired much confidence, to the point that Dickerson wants to see Sean Mannion start in Week 1.
Mannion was drafted by the Rams in the third round of the 2015 draft, but has never started a game. In his two seasons, Mannion has thrown 13 passes for 50 yards and an interception.
Still, don’t expect Goff to be benched. If Mannion — or any other quarterback — starts over Goff, it would be a huge statement on what first-year head coach Sean McVay thinks of the youngster’s future. When a team invests multiple first-round picks in a quarterback as Los Angeles did with Goff, it will give him every opportunity to succeed.
History lesson
The Hall of Fame Game will take place on Aug. 3 between the Arizona Cardinals and Dallas Cowboys. Last year, the contest was slated to be between the Green Bay Packers and Indianapolis Colts, but was canceled due to bad turf conditions. It was the first time the game wasn’t played since its inception in 1962. The Cardinals also played in that affair, tying the New York Giants, 21-21.
The only team to never play in the Hall of Fame Game is the Ravens. Of teams with at least three appearances, only the Washington Redskins, Chicago Bears and Raiders are undefeated. The Buffalo Bills and Miami Dolphins are the only winless teams, combining for an 0-8 mark.
Parting shot
The Dallas Cowboys are a mess. On Friday, the team was mandated to report for training camp in Texas before flying to California over the weekend. Defensive lineman David Irving was nowhere to be found, while star receiver Dez Bryant showed up late, according to Todd Archer of ESPN.
This all coming after Irving was suspended for the first four games of the regular season due to a violation of the league’s substance abuse policy.
Dallas went 13-3 last year, but the warning signs of a mass regression are evident. The Cowboys lost Barry Church, J.J. Wilcox, Morris Claiborne and Brandon Carr from the secondary, and are dealing with suspensions to Irving and Randy Gregory, with the latter being banished for the entire season. This on top of the ongoing Ezekiel Elliott saga, which includes him being ticketed for driving 100 MPH, exposing a woman’s breast on St. Patrick’s Day and allegedly being involved in a fight at a Texas nightclub.
One would think that eventually head coach Jason Garrett and owner Jerry Jones would take control. Yet history tells us that won’t happen. Jones famously let his team run amok in the 1990s during a period of three Super Bowls in four years. The team hasn’t been back to the NFC Championship Game since 1995, but the arrests, fine and suspensions just keep coming.
The Cowboys are coming into a season with promise and expectations, but the floor beneath them might be ready to give way.